Bitcoin’s Cost Base Resetting: New Whales Take Charge

Recent onchain data indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase in market dynamics, marked by the emergence of new large investors or "whales." These newcomers are paying higher prices for Bitcoin and holding onto their assets, leading to a significant change in the network's cost base. This shift is evident in various data metrics and signals a transformation in market participation patterns.

Key Takeaways

New whales now represent almost 50% of Bitcoin's realized market cap, a significant increase from under 22% before 2025.
The realized market cap tracks the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved, revealing the entry point of new capital.
Recent data shows an increase in short-term holder supply, indicating high demand among immediate investors.
Large-tier wallets contributed significantly to Bitcoin's trading volumes, while smaller retail wallets faced losses.
Strong price movements suggest that larger investors are absorbing market fluctuations, maintaining buying pressure despite adverse conditions.

Bitcoin

New Whales Reshaping Bitcoin's Cost Base

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that addresses considered new whales now make up nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. This mark represents a significant change from their share, which rarely exceeded 22% prior to 2025. The realized market cap tracks Bitcoin's value according to the price at which each coin last changed hands. This metric helps illustrate where new capital is entering the market, rather than simply highlighting who owns the most Bitcoin.

Whale Data

Interestingly, reports suggest that the share of realized cap represented by new whales continues to rise, even during market pullbacks. This trend indicates that the aggregate cost basis for the Bitcoin network is being established at higher levels due to these new market participants.

Surge in Short-Term Demand as Large Buyers Enter the Market

In a recent analysis, it was noted that short-term holder supply surged by about 100,000 BTC over a 30-day period, marking an all-time high. This rise reflects considerable demand among immediate investors. Recent exchange data shows that approximately 37% of Bitcoin sent to Binance originated from whale-sized wallets, defined within the range of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.

TradingView Chart
Bitcoin is currently valued at $88,095. Chart: TradingView

Reports from Hyblock displayed that whale wallets, categorized by balances ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, recorded a positive cumulative volume delta of $135 million this week. This contrasts with retail wallets (holding $0 to $10,000) and mid-sized traders ($10,000 to $100,000), which saw negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million, respectively. This essentially means that larger players took advantage of the market by absorbing selling pressure as smaller holders decreased their positions.

The price momentum has been notable, with Bitcoin increasing from $85,100 to $88,000 in just about five hours after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This monetary policy shift was closely monitored by many investors as a likely macroeconomic trigger for price movement. Open interest in Bitcoin futures also climbed rapidly alongside rising prices, and positive funding rates indicate that fresh long positions are being actively created, rather than merely covering previous short positions. This pattern of trading raises the likelihood of volatile market reversals if overall sentiment shifts, even amid strong demand for BTC.

Featured image from Unsplash. Chart from TradingView