Bitcoin's Critical Threshold: Will BTC Price Reach $40,000?

Bitcoin is presently trading at approximately $66,400, representing a nearly 48% decrease from its all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025. A technical analysis is indicating a crucial point for this correction. According to a crypto analyst known as Leshka.eth, Bitcoin is nearing a price level that will determine if this cycle can continue or if it will descend into a significant reset. This defining level is $60,000, and its stability may influence Bitcoin's price path for the remainder of the year.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's current price is about $66,400, significantly below its all-time high.
The critical level to watch for Bitcoin is $60,000; this may determine the price direction moving forward.
Maintaining the $60,000 threshold is essential to avoid a deeper price correction.
A breakdown below $60,000 could lead to a new accumulation phase, with the next potential bottom around $40,000.

Bitcoin

$60,000: A Vital Support Level

As highlighted by Leshka.eth, the $60,000 mark has become the most crucial level for Bitcoin within the current market structure. This price point serves as the final defense line that will influence whether a more significant correction will ensue, pushing Bitcoin down to lower levels.

Recently, Bitcoin has fluctuated around the low $70,000 range, experiencing another 3.3% decline within the past 24 hours. Although it remains comfortably above the $60,000 threshold for now, the margin for error is diminishing, increasing the risk of a downward shift.

The weekly candlestick chart presented by the analyst indicates how past breakdowns from similar structures have led to significant price drops. Nevertheless, it's notable that Bitcoin has not yet dipped below the $60,000 mark in this cycle, with the recent drop in early February finding support around $63,000.

BTCUSD currently trading at $66,114. Chart: TradingView

This context underscores the significance of the $60,000 level. It has consistently acted as a solid floor over the past two months, allowing the price to maintain a higher structure between $63,000 and $76,000. If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, it would signify a loss of support from buyers at an important structural level that has bolstered Bitcoin prices throughout this cycle.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @leshka_eth On X

Understanding the Long-Term Macro Trendline for Bitcoin

A broader perspective emerges when analyzing the long-term trendline spanning multiple Bitcoin cycles. This trendline, visible on the weekly candlestick chart from 2018 projected through to 2028, connects the deepest lows observed during extended bearish phases.

Bitcoin peaked in late 2018, fell dramatically, and reached the trendline in 2020 before entering an extended accumulation period near its lows. This led to a surge into the 2021 cycle peak. A similar pattern unfolded during the 2022 bear market: Bitcoin plummeted from its peak, returned to the macro trendline in 2023, accumulated, and then launched to reach $126,080 in October 2025.

Currently, the trendline sits around the $40,000 price range. According to Leshka.eth, if the $60,000 barrier holds firm, the current cycle will prevail. If it fails, $40,000 could mark the new bottom, signaling the start of another accumulation phase, as noted in a post from the analyst on X.

Featured image from Pexels, chart data courtesy of TradingView