Bitcoin's December Outlook: Key Insights to Consider

Bitcoin began December 2025 cautiously, as traders focus on the market structure surrounding the new monthly candle.

Key Takeaways

Monthly Patterns: Historical trends suggest Bitcoin often sets its monthly high or low early in the month.
Current Market Conditions: December has seen a quick decline from candle open, indicating potential bearish signals.
Price Levels: Key resistance and support levels are identified, with $80,714 as a recent low and $93,175 as a high.
Historical Context: December's volatility and mixed returns from previous years suggest a lack of predictable behavior this month.
Long-term Strategy: Traders are advised to allocate funds based on personal comfort levels, acknowledging the market's unpredictable nature.

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How Will Bitcoin Perform This Month?

Trader Daan Crypto Trades recently shared a yearly performance chart on X, showing a recurring trend in 2025: Bitcoin frequently establishes its monthly extremes early. He pointed out, "We know by now that the first move does often create the monthly high or low within the first ~12 days." This pattern occurs in approximately 80% of the months. His chart highlights examples from previous months like February’s low and March’s high, with June and August noted as exceptions.

Bitcoin price pattern

Currently, December is following a similar pattern, although the results are still unfolding. “Price has taken a quick dive straight from the candle open so far in December, leaving no wick above either,” Daan stated. He emphasized that this kind of one-sided movement often revisits previous levels: “Pay attention closely in the next 1–2 weeks. These immediate moves from the open tend to be retested, as seen in October.”

Daan’s second chart analyzes critical price levels. After hitting a low of about $80,714 on November 21, Bitcoin experienced a relief rally of roughly 15% before approaching a significant resistance zone in the low-$93,000 range. The first attempt to breach this level failed, resulting in a price rollover.

Bitcoin price analysis

“BTC rejecting from the previous support & resistance area is not a great sight for bulls,” he explained. Though there was a notable +15% surge, momentum has faded quickly. The chart also displays a short-term Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of $93,175 to the low of $80,714, with the 0.786 retracement level sitting around $83,381, near the current trading price.

“It’s still early in the week/month,” he added. “Sharp moves often occur right from a new monthly candle, but these aren’t typically the strongest highs or lows. So, it's important to stay alert in the coming days.” His strategy highlights immediate downside levels around the 0.786 retracement and the recent low, with upward movement only becoming convincing if prices can reclaim the mid-to-high $80,000s former support zone.

Daan also provided context for this setup within a broader historical perspective. He referenced a Coinglass chart outlining Bitcoin's monthly returns from 2013 to the present, noting that December's performance has generally been inconsistent, with ranges involving significant volatility.

The historical data reveals that previous Decembers have experienced swings from substantial gains above 30–40% to drops over -30%. The average return for December is a modest +4.75%, while the median return is slightly negative at -3.22%. This indicates there is no guaranteed "Santa rally"; instead, variability and fluctuations characterize this month.

Historical Bitcoin monthly returns

Daan attributes part of this behavior to structural factors. “Don’t be surprised to see unusual trading patterns at the end and start of the year,” he cautioned. “During this period, large holders and funds typically rebalance their portfolios. We might also observe tax loss harvesting activity at some point.” These adjustments and tax-related trades can amplify market movements, particularly in an asset with portions of low liquidity.

His straightforward advice to traders is to maintain an allocation strategy that feels comfortable, considering the uncertainties that 2025’s end and 2026’s beginning may bring.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $87,323.

Bitcoin price