Bitcoin's Dips Below $80,000 May Signal Continued Bear Market, According to Checkonchain

Recent analysis from the on-chain analytics firm, Checkonchain, indicates that Bitcoin's recent price drop may be part of a broader bear market trend rather than a final capitulation. The report highlights significant levels that Bitcoin has breached, which could suggest more pain ahead for investors.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has dipped below critical levels: the ETF Cost Basis and the True Market Mean.
Recent market movements indicate ongoing selling pressure, rather than panic selling typical of a final capitulation.
Futures traders are facing significant liquidations, with over $50 million in long positions wiped out.
As of the latest report, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $76,100, reflecting a nearly 14% decrease over the past week.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Breakdown Below Key Indicators

On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain recently discussed the troubling trend in Bitcoin's price. The firm pointed out that Bitcoin's latest drop signifies a deeper continuation of the bear market rather than the end of it. The charts shared by Checkonchain illustrate this price decline.

Bitcoin True Market Mean

Analyzing the Market Levels

Bitcoin has fallen below two crucial market indicators: the ETF Cost Basis and the True Market Mean. The ETF Cost Basis reflects the average price at which U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) acquired Bitcoin. Until now, Bitcoin had remained above this threshold since mid-2024, only briefly testifying this level during a dip in late 2025 before it proved to be a support point.

However, this time Bitcoin has broken through the ETF Cost Basis. Following that, it also crossed below the True Market Mean, which indicates the average buying price of actively traded BTC. This decline has resulted in most of the active investors experiencing net unrealized losses for the first time since 2023.

Ongoing Market Pain

Despite the evident market distress caused by this price drop, Checkonchain suggests that "current data indicates a progression deeper into the bear market, not the final capitulation event." They highlight several metrics to support this view. Firstly, recent net outflows from spot ETFs, while significant, lack the panic-driven dynamics that typically mark the end phase of a market cycle.

Furthermore, while on-chain losses are increasing, they still haven’t reached the extreme levels associated with genuine capitulation. Additionally, futures market activity shows that traders are still attempting to catch the bottom, which Checkonchain characterizes as a situation where stable low prices are rare.

Recent Liquidations

This speculative behavior in the futures market has led to substantial liquidations across various exchanges. In just a single day, long positions worth $50 million in Bitcoin have been liquidated as Bitcoin's price fluctuated from around $79,000 to below $76,500, according to data from CoinGlass.

Bitcoin Liquidations

Overall, the cryptocurrency market has seen a total of $185 million in long positions liquidated during this period.

Current Bitcoin Price

As of the time of this report, Bitcoin's trading price is around $76,100, reflecting a decline of nearly 14% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The data clearly indicates that Bitcoin's recent struggles could be the start of an extended downturn, impacting many investors in the crypto landscape.