Bitcoin's Final Defense: Is BTC Price Poised for $40,000?

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $66,400, which is nearly 48% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025. A recent technical analysis presents a crucial threshold for the cryptocurrency's potential correction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $66,400, significantly below its all-time high.
The $60,000 level is a crucial support for Bitcoin, determining the potential for future price movements.
Recent declines and technical analysis suggest significant risk if the price drops below this threshold.
The long-term trendline indicates that if $60,000 holds, Bitcoin may continue in its current cycle, but if not, a decline to $40,000 could be ahead.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin

According to crypto analyst Leshka.eth, Bitcoin is nearing a critical price point that could decide if this market cycle endures or undergoes a significant reset. This pivotal line is set at $60,000, and its stability may influence Bitcoin’s price movements for the remainder of the year.

$60,000: A Key Line of Defense

Analyst Leshka.eth emphasizes that the $60,000 price level has now become the most significant zone for Bitcoin in the current market landscape. This level acts as the final barrier that will determine if Bitcoin faces a deeper correction toward lower price levels.

Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the low $70,000 range, with the last 24 hours indicating a 3.3% decline. While it currently remains comfortably above the $60,000 mark, the gap is narrowing and poses increasing downside risks.

The analyst provided a weekly candlestick chart, highlighting how similar breakdowns in the past have resulted in price crashes. However, it is notable that Bitcoin has not yet dropped below the $60,000 level in this cycle; during the early February crash, it found support at around $63,000.

BTCUSD currently trading at $66,114. Chart: TradingView

This context underscores the importance of the $60,000 level. It has consistently acted as a reliable support level over the past two months, maintaining the higher price structure between $63,000 and $76,000. Consequently, a decline below $60,000 would indicate that buyers have relinquished control of a crucial stability point that has underpinned Bitcoin’s price throughout this cycle.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @leshka_eth On X

Understanding the Macro Trendline of Bitcoin Cycles

To gain perspective on Bitcoin’s broader market structure, one must examine the long-term trendline past drawn across several Bitcoin cycles. This trendline, visible in the weekly candlestick chart from 2018 to a projected 2028, connects the lowest points reached during extended bearish phases.

In late 2018, Bitcoin peaked, fell, and touched this trendline in 2020, entering a prolonged accumulation period near its lows before its rise to the 2021 cycle top. The same pattern unfolded during the 2022 bear market: Bitcoin fell from its peak, returned to the macro trendline in 2023, accumulated, and again launched into a new cycle that peaked at $126,080 in October 2025.

Currently, this trendline hovers around the $40,000 price level. Leshka.eth suggests that if the $60,000 level holds, the current cycle will persist. However, if it breaks, the $40,000 mark could become the new bottom, marking the start of another accumulation phase.