Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Selling Spree Ends: New On-Chain Data Signals Shift

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have appeared to halt their net selling activities, according to a series of on-chain analyses. This change could alleviate a significant source of supply pressure as we approach 2026.

Key Takeaways

Long-term holders of Bitcoin (coins held for over six months) have stopped net selling, as indicated by recent on-chain data.
This change could signify a reduction in supply pressure in the market.
The previous trend showed a decline in the share of supply held by long-term holders, but this has now reversed.
Industry experts believe this shift may lead to a more stable market environment for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's long-term holders, who have maintained their coins for a duration exceeding six months, seem to have ceased their net selling activities based on insights from various on-chain analysts. This notable shift could diminish a primary source of structural supply pressure as we move into 2026.

According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, the recent trend reflects a positive change in supply dynamics of long-term holders. He explains, “For months, this supply change was negative,” but it has recently turned slightly positive.

Analyzing the Bitcoin Market Bottom

Darkfost highlights that claims suggesting long-term holders “are selling more than ever” overlook essential data insights, particularly when large exchanges influence the overall picture. He noted that by isolating significant movements—such as nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase—one can better understand the actual supply change. “There was a clear shift in supply change,” he pointed out.

For much of the latter half of 2025, the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders had been on a decline. This decrease typically corresponds with increased selling pressure, as older coins are introduced back into the market. However, Darkfost indicates that this trend has shifted. “We have now transitioned into positive territory, with approximately 10,700 BTC moving into long-term held coins,” he stated. While he calls this change “very modest,” he also emphasizes that it is “not insignificant.” This suggests that long-term holders are now distributing less of their holdings, indicating a potential return to accumulation, even as short-term holders maintain their Bitcoin.

Bitcoin LTH supply change 30 days
Bitcoin LTH supply change over 30 days | Source: X @Darkfost_Coc

In a concise statement, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju affirmed, “Bitcoin long-term holders stopped selling.” Similarly, Matthew Sigel, head of digital research at VanEck, described this shift as a significant change in market dynamics through a post on X. He noted, “BTC: Long-term holders turn net accumulators, easing a major Bitcoin headwind and marking the end, at least for now, of the largest sell pressure event from this group since 2019.”

James Van Straten, a respected expert, added historical context, pointing out that the scale of this distribution pattern is reminiscent of the moves seen at the 2019 market bottom, suggesting that while this inflection is critical, it doesn't automatically guarantee the same outcomes.

Darkfost cautioned that historical changes like this often precede consolidation phases or potential bullish recoveries, but the actual outcome depends on overall market trends. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $88,623.

Bitcoin price chart
Bitcoin remains fluctuating between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels on the 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com