Bitcoin's November Drop: Analysts Predict a Potential 2026 Comeback

Bitcoin has experienced a steep decline this November, making it one of its toughest months in recent years. Traders and fund managers are now faced with the decision of whether to buy in or wait it out.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin experienced an 18% drop in November, leading to speculation among traders about buying or holding.
Analysts see this decline as a potential market reset, removing overleveraged positions.
Important trading levels to monitor are $93,400 and $102,400, with different implications for market sentiment.
Historical patterns suggest that a poor November could lead to a weak December.
A stabilization point is forming, with market participants poised for a significant move, though the direction remains uncertain.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s value has fallen by approximately 18% this month, trading below $91,000 as the markets calmed as the weekend approached.

Market Adjustment: An Opportunity for Buyers

Data from CoinGlass indicates that this downturn resembles the 2019 November losses when Bitcoin dropped around 17%, although it is not as severe as the 35% fall seen in November 2018. Some analysts interpret this decline as a necessary market reset. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, suggests that overleveraged positions and weaker projects have largely been eliminated, potentially allowing long-term holders to invest at lower prices.

Market Analysis Source: Coinglass

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders are keeping a close eye on two significant monthly closing levels. An analyst known as CrediBull Crypto identified $93,400 and $102,400 as essential thresholds. A monthly close above $93,000 would signal a mild positive trend, while a close above $102,000 would be seen as strongly bullish — a scenario that may require more time to materialize.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $91,450 midweek, struggling to surpass resistance just below $92,000. Some market observers believe the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has shifted the pattern of market rallies. Analysts note that institutional involvement has changed the timing and extent of price movements, with gains that previously clustered around year-end now potentially occurring earlier.

BTC Chart BTCUSD trading at $90,641 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Experts highlight that November typically tends to be a robust month for Bitcoin, and a down month has previously led into a down December. Matrixport describes the market as experiencing a unique stalemate, with sentiment, positioning, and macro factors all converging. While Bitcoin rallied slightly above $91.8K during Thanksgiving, this movement didn’t clarify the divide between bullish and bearish outlooks.

📃#MatrixOnTarget Report – November 28, 2025 ⬇️
Is Bitcoin’s Thanksgiving Tailwind Enough Into Christmas? #Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #Volatility #OnchainData #FedWatch #Seasonality #ThanksgivingRally pic.twitter.com/CH39quX6Aa
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) November 28, 2025

Market Conditions

With liquidity thinning, decreased volatility, and fewer requests for crash protection, Glassnode reports increased realized losses and a deleveraging in futures markets, all indicating a lack of strong short-term conviction. This situation creates a balance between pushing towards $100K and a possible decline to $80K.

A bullish hammer reversal pattern emerged when Bitcoin briefly dipped into the $80K range, sparking hopes for a rally as the holiday season approaches. However, some traders are cautious, as weak demand and little liquidity may lead to further declines before confidence returns. Regardless, the market appears to be quietly gearing up for a more significant directional shift, although it remains uncertain which direction that will take.

At this point, Bitcoin remains in a cautious position. Investors and traders are attentively watching for monthly closures, liquidity trends, and options flows for hints of what comes next. The next clear signal may determine whether late buyers find success or whether sellers establish a new price range.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView