Bitcoin's November Struggles: Is Demand Picking Up? Insights from Bitfinex

Bitcoin is facing a challenging November, diverging from its historical trend of strong performance. However, analysts from Bitfinex believe that demand could soon return to the market. With recent price movements indicating uncertainty, crypto investors are keenly watching for signals of a potential turnaround.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's historical average return for November is 40.82%, but this year it may close negatively.
Following a 3.69% decline in October, Bitcoin's price sat at $87,305 at the time of reporting.
Interest from Bitcoin whales appears to be gradually increasing, suggesting a potential shift in demand.
Many investors who purchased Bitcoin above $106,000 are facing losses as the market reacts to pricing declines.

Bitcoin's November Struggles: Is Demand Picking Up? Insights from Bitfinex

Bitcoin's Performance This Month

Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, averaging a return of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass. Despite this, October ended with a 3.69% decline, contrasting with its typical average gain of around 19.92%. This shift leads some to doubt the reliability of seasonal trends.

Bitfinex analysts noted that “we are also on track to close November in the red,” with Bitcoin's price currently trading 20.60% lower than at the start of the month.

Bitcoin Price Trends October and November have typically been Bitcoin's two strongest months. Source: CoinGlass

As of the latest update, Bitcoin was valued at $87,305, based on data from CoinMarketCap. Analysts pointed out that this quarter has shown a deviation from historical seasonality metrics.

Increased Interest from Bitcoin Whales

The current market volatility has surprised many traders. Merlin The Trader highlighted a potential positive outlook for November, suggesting that the weak sentiment from October might set the stage for a recovery. He referred to the conditions as “Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. The perfect setup,” in a post on X on November 3.

Bitcoin Price Trends Bitcoin has declined by 7.17% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

Additionally, Bitfinex analysts revealed that it is only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin has dipped below the lower threshold of the short-term holders’ cost-basis model. Currently, short-term holders, defined as those who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days, show an average realized price of $86,787.

Many Buyers Facing Losses

The recent price downturn has resulted from speculative activity, particularly around the $106,000 and $118,000 levels. This increased buying activity has left many holders now “capitulating at a loss,” according to Bitfinex analysts.

They emphasized that the market currently faces two potential outcomes: a “meaningful resurgence in demand” or a prolonged and possibly deeper accumulation phase.

Encouragingly, some indicators suggest that interest from Bitcoin whales is beginning to rise again. The crypto sentiment platform Santiment noted that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin grew by 0.47% (91 wallets) since November 11.

Regardless of whether the historic seasonal trends hold, it is important to remember that December has generally been a quieter month for Bitcoin, averaging returns of 4.75% since 2013.

Related: Bitcoin volatility surge may signal return to options-driven prices: Analyst