Bitcoin's Path to $100K: How Likely Is It in January?

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant inflows from Spot ETFs in the first part of the year and reached a peak price of $126,000 during the first week of October. However, recent market conditions suggest a bearish trend, casting doubt on the likelihood of BTC reaching new all-time highs in 2026. Experts indicate that while there is some buying power indicated by rising stablecoin supplies, a rally to $100,000 in January would require a change in market dynamics.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October but faces a bearish trend now.
Experts believe a return to previous highs in 2026 is unlikely.
The current market seems defensive, with institutions hedging against price drops.
Resistance levels at $90,000 remain strong, hindering potential bullish movements.
A short-term rally to $100,000 could happen if liquidity conditions change.

Current Market Dynamics

Bitcoin’s price saw significant interest from both retail and institutional investors, leading to impressive Spot ETF inflows. However, the last ten weeks have shown a downward trend, indicating a shift to bear market conditions, as confirmed by analysts like Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant. While the supply of stablecoins is increasing and suggests potential buying power, it remains dormant for now. Any change in this situation before January could enable a rally towards the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin 1-day Chart

Market Hesitation from Buyers

Recent insights from AMBCrypto show that sophisticated traders are adopting a defensive stance. The 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal indicates that institutions are more focused on protecting themselves from price declines rather than trying for aggressive price increases.

The 1-day chart demonstrates that the overall trend is bearish, with considerable selling pressure preventing buyers from sustaining any rally. Resistance at $94,000 was successfully challenged, and the $90,000 mark has proven to be a formidable barrier.

Potential for a Bitcoin Surge

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

Liquidity plays a significant role in price movements. A cluster of short liquidations between $91,000 and $96,400 aligns closely with Bitcoin's current market price, suggesting that a sudden upward movement may occur. If Bitcoin can trigger a liquidation cascade, it might exceed the $96,000 threshold.

However, since such a movement would primarily be driven by the derivatives market, it's likely that a pullback will follow. Traders might use this to take profits or offload some of their assets.

Caution for Traders

The present market environment poses risks for both bullish and bearish traders. Low liquidity during the holiday season has led to sharp rejections at the $90,000 resistance level, but there are signs that long-term holders aren't selling off significantly.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen noted in November, a bounce towards the 200-day moving average (currently around $106,800) would only create a lower high in terms of the macro trend. Therefore, traders should remain cautious and not expect a rally to drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

Concluding Thoughts

Disclaimer: The insights shared in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other forms of advice. They represent the writer’s perspective only.