Bitcoin's Peak Price Might Not Be Reached Yet at $126,000: Here's Why

Crypto analyst Plan C has used the business cycle to explain why Bitcoin's peak might still be ahead, despite its previous surge to $126,000. This analysis comes as Bitcoin finds it challenging to maintain its value above the significant $90,000 mark, having lost many gains since the beginning of the year.

Key Takeaways

Plan C suggests Bitcoin has not peaked despite reaching $126,000 last year.
Historically, Bitcoin bull market peaks occur when the business cycle index is between 55 and 65.
The ISM PMI stood at 47.9, indicating the bull market peak has yet to occur.
A recovery in Bitcoin is contingent upon reclaiming the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100.
Current market conditions show Bitcoin struggling around $90,000, with mixed macroeconomic data also influencing its performance.

Bitcoin

Understanding Why Bitcoin's Peak Isn't Yet Established

In a recent post on X, Plan C indicated that it’s premature to declare that Bitcoin has reached its peak when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed the 50 threshold. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have peaked when the business cycle falls between 55 and 65. Significantly, the most recent ISM PMI data revealed a reading of 47.9 in December of last year, suggesting that the bull market peak has not yet come.

Plan C's comments respond to those of BTC analyst Sminston, who also believes the Bitcoin top isn't in yet. He pointed out that the ISM PMI remains below the crucial 50 mark at 47.9. Sminston argued that the market is still gearing up for a significant rally, suggesting that Bitcoin typically experiences parabolic increases when the ISM PMI breaks above 50.

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Source: Chart from Plan C on X

The analysis furthermore indicated that Bitcoin's price could soar above $100,000 if the ISM PMI moves towards the 65 level, potentially marking the bull market's peak for both Bitcoin and the wider crypto landscape, as inferred by Plan C. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is struggling around the $90,000 region, while other macroeconomic indicators are presenting a mixed outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. New U.S. jobs data has bolstered the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rates at the January FOMC meeting, which may negatively impact the crypto market.

Bitcoin Needs to Overcome $99,000 for a Recovery Signal

According to a report from Glassnode, a significant sign of Bitcoin's recovery would be reclaiming the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100 on a sustained basis. Glassnode asserts that this could signify renewed confidence among newer participants in the market and a shift towards a more positive trend.

The analytics platform also stressed that as the focus shifts toward whether Bitcoin can reclaim this cost basis, the broader market dynamics are starting to mirror previous transitional failures. This situation appears reminiscent of the early 2022 period, where Bitcoin’s prolonged failure to recover above this level considerably raised the possibility of a deeper bearish trend.

Furthermore, Glassnode emphasized that if Bitcoin remains beneath this cost basis, demand driven by investor confidence might continue to decline. Another on-chain analytics service, CryptoQuant, highlighted concerns that large Bitcoin investors are not taking this opportunity to buy, similar to the dynamics seen between 2021 and 2022, just before Bitcoin peaked.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $90,500, having experienced a drop over the last 24 hours, as reported by CoinMarketCap.

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BTC trading at $90,743 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com