Bitcoin's Rally Could Persist Despite Recent Volatility, Experts Suggest

Amid ongoing fluctuations in the market, top financial executives assert that the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle is not yet finished. They emphasize that the recent downturn stems from shifts in market sentiment rather than fundamental issues. As long as Bitcoin maintains levels above the March 2024 peak, a surge towards $160,000 could be imminent.

Key Takeaways

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing significant volatility, mainly due to market sentiment, not fundamental challenges.
Experts predict that without falling below the March 2024 high of $74,000, Bitcoin could continue its upward trend.
Potential price targets by 2026-2027 range from $145,000 to $160,000.
The recent price drop reflects sentiment shifts rather than structural weaknesses in the market.

BTC

Overview of Current Market Trends

As December commenced, the cryptocurrency market faced a downturn. As of Monday morning (UTC), the total market cap had decreased nearly 6%, falling to approximately $3.01 trillion. Specifically, Bitcoin saw a significant decline of 5.8%, trading at $85,999. Its performance over the past week shows a 0.5% decline, 22% drop over the month, and an 11.5% decrease over the year—all highlighting a stark contrast to its October all-time high of $126,080, representing a 32% drop.

Analyzing Current Market Volatility

Wave IV Correction Insights

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at financial services firm Ledn, provided insights into the current market. He believes we are undergoing a Wave IV correction, typically concluding at either the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Glover commented, “If this is the case, we may have already completed Wave IV, suggesting we're ready to resume the upward trajectory.” He introduced the Rule of Alternation, explaining that if Wave II was a standard A-B-C correction, then Wave IV might be more complex. He noted, “The current correction appears swift and straightforward.”

There remains the possibility of a Wave 5 extension, which could push Bitcoin's price to $125,000 before any significant pullback occurs. Glover reassured that unless Bitcoin drops below the March 2024 high of $74,000, there is minimal risk of a drastic sell-off. “I anticipate the market will continue accumulating positions on dips,” he added.

He cautioned that while we may experience significant “directionless volatility” in the following months, he expects the base to solidify between $71,000 and $80,000. Once established, the rally could extend into late 2026 or early 2027, potentially targeting $145,000 to $160,000.

Sentiment vs. Structural Challenges

Sentiment-Driven Market Corrections

Fabian Dori, CIO at digital asset bank Sygnum, shared his views, highlighting that the current capitulation is driven more by sentiment shifts than by macroeconomic or fundamental weaknesses. He identified three key elements influencing the market dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Despite the current negative sentiment and increased volatility, Dori believes the foundational drivers—macro momentum, liquidity, blockchain fundamentals, and regulatory developments—remain robust. This suggests that the recent correction is more of an overreaction than a sign of long-term structural decline.

Dori noted, “The narrative shift is primarily due to risk re-assessment during a time when investors were already questioning the peak of the Four-Year Cycle.” He concluded, “The current situation illustrates sentiment capitulation, not a fundamental downturn. From a cycle standpoint, we're witnessing a mature phase, not a concluding one.”

Hence, while Q4 has presented its challenges with a painful correction, the underlying factors propelling the cycle forward are still very much in play. Dori advises that, although the short-term environment may seem unsettling, it historically serves as an attractive entry point for investors looking to maintain a mid- to long-term approach, rather than signaling an end to the cycle.