Bitcoin’s Recent 7% Decline to $77K Could Signal Cycle Low, Analyst Suggests

Bitcoin’s 7% Drop to $77K May Mark Cycle Low, Analyst Says

Bitcoin may have reached a support level after plunging approximately 7% to $77,000 over the weekend. Analyst PlanC believes this decline could represent the most significant pullback in the current bullish cycle.

Key Takeaways:

An analyst suggests Bitcoin's fall to $77,000 could signify a capitulation-style cycle low.
This downturn resembles previous crashes that led to significant recoveries, despite current losses.
Some analysts caution that further decreases are still possible, despite a recent price bounce.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Saturday, PlanC commented that there is a "reasonable chance" this recent decline signals a capitulation low rather than the start of an extended downturn.

Bitcoin briefly dipped to the $77,000 mark before stabilizing and slightly recovering to around $78,600, as per data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin's Price Drop Mirrors Previous Capitulations That Led to Major Recoveries

Despite this recent uptick, Bitcoin remains down over 11% in the last month and approximately 38% below its peak of $126,100 reached in October.

PlanC drew parallels between the current price movement and several historical downturns that eventually led to substantial recoveries. He highlighted the capitulation during the 2018 bear market near $3,000, the COVID-induced crash to around $5,100 in March 2020, and the steep declines following the FTX and Terra-Luna collapses, when Bitcoin traded between $15,500 and $17,500.

“There is a reasonable chance we are currently experiencing another significant capitulation low,” wrote PlanC, noting that he estimates the cycle bottom could fall between $75,000 and $80,000.

He suggests that this recent sell-off might represent a final shakeout in the market rather than a fundamental shift in the overall trend.

Others in the market have expressed caution but agree that weekend movements can amplify market sentiment. Bitcoin supporter and financial accountant Rajat Soni emphasized that the decline occurred during a notoriously volatile trading period for cryptocurrencies.

“Never trust a weekend pump or dump,” he warned, advising traders to be skeptical of drawing strong conclusions from short-term price fluctuations.

However, not everyone is convinced that the downward trend has subsided. Experienced trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also believes that the cycle low might occur later this year, potentially around October, although he expects several relief rallies before that happens.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity remarked that 2026 may be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices likely dropping to the mid-$60,000 range before a more sustained recovery.

Bitcoin Faces Pressure from Federal Reserve Caution and Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin has dipped back below $89,000 after a brief rebound, weighed down by tighter financial conditions and escalating geopolitical tensions that have affected risk assets.

Samer Hasn, an analyst at XS.com, stated that the Federal Reserve's neutral to hawkish stance, coupled with increased tensions in the Middle East, has diminished demand for speculative investments within the crypto space.

Market data suggests dwindling confidence among traders. According to CoinGlass, crypto futures open interest has decreased by 42% from record highs, as attempts to establish breakout movements have been swiftly met with sharp sell-offs.

Meanwhile, capital has shifted towards traditional safe havens such as gold and silver, causing digital assets to struggle in attracting new investments amid ongoing volatility.

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showing little urgency about rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties pushing investors towards tangible assets, analysts warn that Bitcoin remains a high-risk investment until either monetary policies become more accommodating or global tensions ease.