Bitcoin's Remarkable 109% Rally Setup Returns: Is $196,000 BTC Possible?

Bitcoin has recently activated a rare double-trigger setup, which hasn't been seen in more than a year. Capriole's institutional accumulation signal is now giving a positive indication, while Bitcoin treasury firms have returned to being net buyers. Historically, similar setups have resulted in an average Bitcoin increase of over 109%, with the current price just above $89,000.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's recent double-trigger setup has not appeared in over a year.
Capriole’s institutional accumulation signal is indicating a bullish trend, signaling net buying from treasury companies.
Historically, Bitcoin rallied significantly during previous setups, with an average gain of 109%.
Current prices could potentially rise to between $186,000 and $196,000, approaching the $200,000 target.
Institutional interest is also evident in Ethereum's treasury trend, suggesting a broader bullish sentiment in the market.

Main Content

Bitcoin has recently activated a significant double-trigger setup that has not been seen in over a year. This setup, indicated by Capriole's institutional accumulation signal, is now flashing green, and Bitcoin treasury firms have returned to being net buyers. The last five occurrences of this setup resulted in an average increase of over 109%.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is only up about 5%. The primary signal for this bullish sentiment is the "Net Institutional Buying," which tracks inflows from large investors. The latest chart shows its sixth green phase since 2020, with four of the previous five instances leading to remarkable rallies of +390%, +68%, +61%, and +41%. Only one instance saw a decrease, with a -13% move.

Institutional Buying Chart Source: Capriole's Charles Edwards

If the average gains play out again, Bitcoin could rise from approximately $89,000 to around $186,000 to $196,000. This would bring it close to the much-anticipated $200,000 milestone.

A secondary confirmation has emerged without considerable fanfare. Capriole's Buy-Sell Ratio Rate of Change (ROC) for Bitcoin treasuries has turned positive, indicating that treasury-held entities, such as Strategy and American Bitcoin, as well as other large corporate wallets, have returned to the buying side. These investments are generally more stable and carry less risk. When these treasury entities start purchasing again, it often suggests a continuation of a strong trend. Notably, the last time we saw a green phase here was right before a significant price surge back in August.

Charles Edwards, the analyst responsible for these signals, has also identified Ethereum’s treasury trend as "strongly positive." This indicates that it's not just Bitcoin that is enjoying support from institutional investors, but Ethereum as well.

When both metrics — net institutional inflows and treasury buy-backs — align, it typically suggests that significant activity is occurring behind the scenes. Furthermore, the structure of exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows is expected to amplify this bullish momentum.

In summary, it appears that the ignition for another substantial rally in Bitcoin may have just begun.