Bitcoin's RSI Against Gold Reaches 30 for the Fourth Time: What Lies Ahead?

Recent developments show that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) against gold has plummeted to 30 for only the fourth time in its history, signifying that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently undervalued in comparison to gold (XAU).

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's RSI against gold hit an extreme low of 30 for the fourth time in history.
BTC is currently undervalued relative to gold, having fallen to 20 ounces after a peak of 37 ounces.
Past instances of the RSI hitting this low have typically preceded significant recoveries in Bitcoin’s value.
Bitcoin has suffered considerable losses against gold, dropping nearly 46% since its peak in August 2025.

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This situation arises as Bitcoin continues to lag behind gold for over six months. After reaching a peak of 37 ounces of gold in August 2025, BTC has been on a downward trend, experiencing five consecutive months of decline against gold and is headed towards a sixth monthly loss.

During this downturn, BTC has dropped to 20 ounces of gold, exhibiting a falling channel pattern on the monthly chart. However, market indicators now confirm that the BTC/XAU pair has hit an RSI low of 30 for the fourth time in its history, confirming that Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold.

Bitcoin's Ongoing Struggles Against Gold

Renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted this significant development while assessing Bitcoin's price behavior during the ongoing decline. Contextually, after peaking at $98,000 on January 14, BTC has experienced consistent decreases, with a notable drop to $92,000 leading to $785 million in liquidations of long positions.

This downward movement has been fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties linked to recent tariff announcements by former President Trump, aggravating Bitcoin's decline since its peak of 37 ounces in August 2025. Bitcoin has now fallen nearly 46%, recording five successive monthly losses against gold, resulting in a pattern of decline on the one-month chart. Nonetheless, the latest indicator may suggest a potential rebound for BTC.

Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Hits 30

As per the chart data shared by van de Poppe, Bitcoin's 1-week RSI against gold has fallen to an extreme low of 30. This is notable as it marks the fourth instance in history where the RSI has reached this level.

Historically, Bitcoin has found long-term lows against the yellow metal around this point. Each previous occasion was typically followed by a strong recovery period, indicating that sellers were exhausted and value investors started preparing for the next market cycle. Additionally, the emerging falling channel on the one-month BTC/XAU chart supports this outlook. Falling channels often form during corrective phases and are generally resolved by a bullish breakout when market momentum switches back to the upside.

Bitcoin Falling Channel Against Gold

Historical Context of Bitcoin's RSI Levels

Van de Poppe’s data indicates that all prior occurrences of the RSI hitting such lows took place during Bitcoin bear markets. The last instance was in November 2022, following the collapse of FTX, after which Bitcoin rebounded from 9 ounces of gold to a high of 34 ounces by March 2024.

Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Drops to 30 Michael van de Poppe

Before that, the weekly RSI dropped to 29.15 in December 2018 during that bear market, with BTC trading for 3 ounces of gold. Following that, it increased to 10 ounces by June 2019. The earliest recorded occurrence was in January 2015 when the RSI hit 27.65, leading to another upward trend shortly thereafter.

Disclaimer: This content is meant for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may not reflect those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.