Bitcoin's Santa Rally Fades – Looking Ahead to 2026

The holiday season often brings hopes of a "Santa Rally," but as we approach the end of 2025, Bitcoin holders are seeing concerning signs instead of excitement. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling around $87,440, showing only a minimal increase of 0.33%, leading to an uneasy market atmosphere.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price is hovering at $87,440 with minimal upward movement.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin's current pattern resembles the 2021 market top, hinting at potential declines.
A "mini-Bart" pattern suggests Bitcoin is consolidating after losing key support, potentially leading toward a "Supercycle."
Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will experience a significant decline or an upward trend in 2026.

Bitcoin's Santa rally is dead - But 2026 could have something better in store

Analyzing Bitcoin's Current Trends

This recent weakness in Bitcoin's price has ignited discussions online, particularly among analysts who observe that the current price action mirrors the top of the 2021 bull run. At that time, Bitcoin peaked at $51,700 on December 24, only to crash by 34% within a month. If history repeats itself, we might be facing a similarly challenging January ahead.

Some analysis on X highlights that the current pace of sell-offs could push Bitcoin down toward $70,000, which bears are watching closely. This leads to a critical question for 2026: Is the focus on when Bitcoin will touch six figures now irrelevant compared to whether a more prolonged downturn is underway?

As one user on X noted, “I’m usually not inclined to believe in fractals, yet the current price action raises the possibility of such a situation occurring.” Another analyst, Kaleo, shared a similar perspective, suggesting that the market’s present position is reminiscent of Fall 2020.

Bitcoin mirrors 2021 crash

Are We on the Brink of a Bitcoin Supercycle?

Currently, Bitcoin appears to be following what analysts call a “mini-Bart” pattern, where it relinquishes nearly all of its recent gains and stabilizes at a lower price range. After breaking through a crucial support level, the market has entered a quiet consolidation phase, which may seem uneventful to many traders.

However, periods like this often serve as setups for significant market moves. Instead of another extended bear market, the current phase might indicate the onset of a “Supercycle.” If Bitcoin manages to set new all-time highs in 2026, it could ignite lengthy rally periods, trigger vibrant altcoin seasons, and increase activity from mainstream crypto applications.

Despite the inevitability of a bear market at some point, the best investment opportunities may be emerging right now during this overlooked phase.

What’s on the Horizon for Bitcoin in Early 2026?

Further analysis from AMBCrypto indicates that Bitcoin continues to maintain support between its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, approximately around $84,000 to $85,000. Analyst Beimnet Abebe has even identified price levels below $80,000 as strong buying opportunities.

Nonetheless, as Bitcoin seeks stability, it faces a decline in social interest, and increased institutional influence raises questions about whether Bitcoin is straying from its original decentralized ethos. While Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) help to keep prices buoyant, they may dampen the explosive growth most investors are hoping for.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the True MVRV reached only 2.17 in 2024—significantly lower than in previous cycles—which suggests a market maturing where savvy investors take profits sooner, leading to less volatile price swings.

As we move into 2026, investors must adapt to a new reality: while Bitcoin may be becoming a safer and more reliable investment, this stability may come at the expense of the vibrant volatility that once characterized it.

Conclusion

With Bitcoin's potential trajectory uncertain for the coming months, investors and traders should remain vigilant. Understanding these market dynamics could help navigate the challenges that lie ahead.