Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit Signals Potential Bullish Turn by Q1 2026

As Bitcoin battles to rise above the $90,000 mark, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of uncertainty, struggling to regain bullish momentum after a period of consolidation. Analysts increasingly express concerns about the possibility of a prolonged bear market extending into 2026, as sentiment remains cautious and traders are hesitant to commit ahead of clearer market signals.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price remains under $90,000, indicating a weak market.
The "Supply in Profit" metric has decreased from over 19 million BTC to about 13.5 million BTC, signaling market corrections.
Despite past bearish trends, the 365-day moving average is historically high, and short-term averages show signs of stabilization.
A critical inflection point may occur if Bitcoin can maintain current price levels.
The potential for a bullish cross in moving averages is projected for late February to early March 2026 if conditions allow.

Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026

Despite the skepticism, there are investors who believe that the market may not be in complete decline. Some, including on-chain analyst Axel Adler, suggest that Bitcoin is entering a transitional phase rather than an outright reversal of trend. Adler emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric, which appears to provide crucial insights into current market conditions.

Understanding Supply in Profit

Axel Adler has provided a forecast that charts the convergence of Bitcoin’s 30-day and 90-day moving averages for the "Supply in Profit" metric. This convergence could signal a significant shift in market dynamics, particularly if the 30-day moving average crosses above the 90-day average.

Forecast chart of SMA 30 and SMA 90 Supply in Profit convergence | Source: Axel Adler

Currently, the difference between these two moving averages is decreasing, at a rate of around 28,000 BTC per day. This convergence is not prompted by a sharp increase in Supply in Profit but is instead a result of the longer-moving average's decline. As older high values from October clear out of the 90-day calculation, this adjustment may create a temporary boost for convergence.

Should the current conditions persist, Adler predicts a potential bullish cross might materialize between late February and early March 2026. However, this forecast is highly sensitive to price fluctuations; a drop in Bitcoin's price could lead to a decrease in Supply in Profit.

Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics

Currently, Bitcoin trades below the pivotal $90,000 mark, illustrating a structurally weak market despite recent short-term stabilization. The price chart reveals consolidation after a significant drop from the $100,000 to $105,000 range, effectively changing previous support into resistance.

BTC consolidates below $90K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

At present, Bitcoin weaves below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the existing bearish trend and indicating that any price increases are likely to meet resistance. The 200-day moving average, located well above the current price, emphasizes the significant distance Bitcoin has moved from its longer-term trend equilibrium.

Since the sell-off in November, momentum has notably cooled. Though the intensity of selling has diminished, the lack of strong buying volume suggests that buyers are still hesitant. The price movements suggest a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, oscillating between approximately $85,000 and $90,000—a behavior often indicative of uncertainty rather than accumulation.

For the bulls, reclaiming the $90,000 threshold is crucial for a shift in market sentiment. Without a recovery above this level, there remain potentials for further downside risks, with $85,000 acting as immediate support. Until Bitcoin regains its key moving averages, the broader market structure is likely to favor continued range-bound or corrective price movements.

Featured image from ChatGPT; chart sourced from TradingView.com.