Bitcoin's Volatility Declines: Less Turbulent Than Nvidia, Says Bitwise

Bitcoin Now Less Volatile Than Nvidia as Investor Base Broadens, Says Bitwise

Bitcoin is becoming less volatile, showing smaller price swings than Nvidia's shares as of 2025. Bitwise attributes this change to a broader and more mature investor base.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin's volatility has fallen below that of Nvidia, thanks to a more diversified investor base that's incorporating institutional products, according to Bitwise.
The emergence of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and access to traditional markets is changing Bitcoin's trading patterns, leading to reduced price fluctuations.
Bitwise believes that the current calmer price activity signals a structural shift, predicting further institutional engagement in Bitcoin by 2026.

In a Wednesday report, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin will likely remain less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) through 2026, noting a long-term decline in Bitcoin's price fluctuations over the last ten years.

Institutional Involvement Eases Bitcoin's Volatility

Bitwise argues that Bitcoin is experiencing a transformation in trading behaviors due to its increasing recognition in traditional financial markets.

"Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s volatility has consistently decreased," said Bitwise. They further explain that this trend indicates a "derisking" of the asset as institutional investors engage more through regulated financial instruments like spot ETFs.

The growth of ETFs and other traditional investment vehicles has effectively broadened Bitcoin's investor demographic, beyond just retail traders and crypto-specific funds.

Bitwise highlights that this diversification has played a significant role in softening the dramatic price swings that were once characteristic of Bitcoin.

This year, data reveals a stark contrast in volatility between Bitcoin and Nvidia. Bitcoin's price has fluctuated by 68% between a low of approximately $75,000 in April 2025 and its peak at $126,000 in early October. In comparison, Nvidia has seen a much more significant swing of 120%, moving from around $94 in early April to a high of $207 later in the year.

Despite this greater volatility, Nvidia's shares have achieved higher returns. Nvidia has increased by about 27% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has seen a decline of around 8% since the year's beginning, as cryptocurrency markets have begun to diverge from stock performance.

Bitwise interprets the recent subdued price movements as indicative of a long-term trend, rather than a temporary state. The firm notes that traditional market influences that previously exacerbated extreme fluctuations in cryptocurrency, like leveraged speculation and rapid responses to halving events, are diminishing in significance.

Looking to the future, Bitwise expresses a positive outlook for Bitcoin. They anticipate that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high and may break free from the historical four-year cycles that have governed previous market behaviors.

Additionally, the firm predicts that institutional participation will deepen in 2026, with banks like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch among potential new entrants into the Bitcoin market.

End of Sell-side Pressure from Long-term Holders?

According to a fresh report from research and brokerage firm K33, the ongoing selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, which has been notable since 2024, may be nearing its conclusion.

K33 estimates that approximately 1.6 million BTC, valued at roughly $138 billion, has been returned to the market in the past two years as early investors took profits.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, suggests that these sales reflect intentional decisions rather than technical reasons like wallet consolidations or ETF-related transactions.

The report emphasizes that 2024 and 2025 are likely to be among the most significant years for long-term supply reactivation, driven not by speculation but through direct selling into existing institutional liquidity.