Bitcoin's Volatility Expected to Remain Lower Than Nvidia in 2026, According to Bitwise

Bitcoin's volatility appears to be decreasing, with its fluctuations in 2025 being less pronounced compared to Nvidia's stock, suggesting a growing and diversifying investor base. Bitwise predicts that this trend will continue into 2026, as institutional investments play a significant role in this stability.

Key Takeaways

Decreased Volatility: Bitcoin's price movements in 2025 were more stable compared to Nvidia.
Diversifying Investor Base: The growing involvement of institutional investors is contributing to Bitcoin's lower volatility.
Future Predictions: Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin will experience less volatility than Nvidia in 2026 and anticipates a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
Market Trends: Major financial institutions entering the crypto space and the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could further boost the market.

Bitcoin’s volatility below Nvidia in 2025 as investor base grew: Bitwise

Declining Volatility in Bitcoin

According to a recent report by Bitwise, Bitcoin's volatility has lessened significantly, with its market activity in 2025 being calmer than that seen with Nvidia (NVDA). The analysis indicates that this trend of decreasing volatility will likely continue into 2026, reflecting a diversification in Bitcoin's investor demographic.

Bitwise emphasizes that the volatility of Bitcoin has been on a downward trajectory over the past decade. The increased presence of institutional investment products has contributed to this "derisking" of the cryptocurrency, as it attracts a broader range of investors.

Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will be less volatile than Nvidia in 2026.

Nvidia's Higher Volatility

In terms of price changes, Bitcoin has experienced a 68% fluctuation this year, moving from a low of $75,000 in April to an all-time high of $126,000 in early October. In contrast, Nvidia's shares have seen a more volatile range, characterized by a 120% swing from a low of $94 in early April to a 2025 peak of $207 in late October.

Year-to-date, Nvidia's stock has outperformed Bitcoin, with a 27% increase. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has declined by 8% as the cryptocurrency market separates from broader stock trends.

Optimistic Predictions for Bitcoin

Bitwise is optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects in the upcoming year, making several bold predictions, including the possibility of reaching a new all-time high and breaking its historical four-year cycle. They suggest that factors such as the Bitcoin halving and interest rate trends will have less impact than in previous cycles.

The firm also cites entry of major financial institutions such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch into the cryptocurrency market. It forecasts that increased allocations to spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and ongoing innovations in blockchain technology will accelerate Bitcoin's adoption in 2026.

In summary, Bitwise anticipates that regulatory changes will continue to facilitate a faster integration of cryptocurrency into the mainstream, predicting that crypto equities will perform better than tech stocks moving forward.