Bitcoin S2F Model Predicts BTC Price Could Reach $500,000: Here’s The Timeline

Bitcoin may be poised for a significant long-term price increase, according to a well-known valuation model in the cryptocurrency sector. Analyst PlanB, who prefers to remain anonymous, states that the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates Bitcoin could average approximately $500,000 during the current halving cycle that spans from 2024 to 2028. This bold prediction comes despite Bitcoin’s current trading levels not reflecting such a high price, although it has recently bounced back to the $70,000 range.

Key Takeaways

Analyst PlanB's S2F model suggests Bitcoin could average around $500,000 between 2024 and 2028.
This projection indicates significant potential for Bitcoin to exceed those price levels during the halving cycle.
The current price action of Bitcoin serves as an important indicator of its valuation and the relevance of the S2F model.
Bitcoin is currently positioned above crucial support levels, with a considerable percentage of addresses holding at a loss.
Despite recent fluctuations, analysts speculate that Bitcoin's correction may still be ongoing.

In conclusion, understanding these components of Bitcoin's potential trajectory can help newcomers better navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin

Predicted Timeline for Bitcoin Reaching $500,000

PlanB’s outlook does not suggest an immediate leap to $500,000, but rather an average price around that mark throughout the post-halving cycle from 2024 to 2028, provided the Stock-to-Flow model continues to hold true. This prediction is bolder than merely estimating a cycle peak, as averaging $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin will spend a considerable amount of time significantly above that price at some point during this cycle.

The current price movement of Bitcoin serves as a critical test to determine whether the leading cryptocurrency is undervalued at present or if the S2F model is no longer accurate. PlanB’s technical analysis includes a chart that illustrates his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $500,000. This chart overlays Bitcoin's historical prices with key indicators such as the 200-week moving average, realized cost price, and a staircase-like progression of the Stock-to-Flow model. The dotted S2F path for the halving cycle from 2024 to 2028 predicts a rise to around $500,000 by 2027.

Bitcoin price

Source: PlanB on X

Current Situation of Bitcoin

In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, swinging between periods of recovery and pressure. The asset traded above $73,000 on March 5, subsequently dropped towards the mid-$60,000s, and has since recovered to above $70,000 at the time of this report. This wavering price action underscores the importance of PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow price estimate, as it takes considerable conviction to project an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin amidst these uncertainties.

Currently, Bitcoin's price stands just above two key support levels: the realized cost price and the 200-week moving average. These support levels are also depicted in PlanB’s S2F model chart. While this does not guarantee a breakout to six or seven figures, it reinforces the notion that the overall cycle structure has not entirely crumbled.

As it stands, around 43% of Bitcoin addresses are in a losing position, predominantly affecting short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury firms. Despite Bitcoin’s price drop of over 45% from its peak in October 2025, many analysts believe the correction has not yet hit its bottom.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com