Bitcoin Set for Steady Growth Over the Next Decade, Says Bitwise CIO

Bitcoin is expected to see consistent gains over the next ten years. However, investors shouldn't anticipate the sharp year-on-year increases experienced in previous cycles. This perspective comes from Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

Key Takeaways:

Steady Gains Expected: Matt Hougan forecasts stable, lower-volatility increases in Bitcoin over the coming decade, rather than explosive rallies.
Positive Outlook for 2026: He remains optimistic about 2026, citing continued institutional buying activity despite recent price declines.
Market Concerns: Some analysts caution that Bitcoin may still experience significant downturns if the current cycle has peaked.

In a discussion with CNBC on Friday, Hougan painted a picture of Bitcoin's future as a steady rise characterized by lower volatility and more gradual returns.

"I foresee a ten-year upward trend with solid returns," he explained. "While the returns may not be spectacular, they will be strong and accompanied by some fluctuations."

Bitcoin Set for Steady Growth Over the Next Decade, Says Bitwise CIO

Continuation of Bullish Sentiment for 2026

Hougan reiterated his belief that the upcoming year, 2026, will be beneficial for Bitcoin. He has held this forecast since July, well before the asset surged to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October.

"I believe 2026 will bring positive changes," he stated, despite growing uncertainty regarding whether the current market cycle may have already topped out.

Discussions about market peaks have gained momentum since Bitcoin experienced a notable drop from its October highs. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $87,800, which marks a decrease of about 3.8% in the last 30 days, as reported by CoinMarketCap.

ReserveOne's Chief Investment Officer, Sebastian Beau, noted that the recent drop has reinstated doubts about the sustainability of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. "The all-time high was $125,000, and now we're hovering around $87,000—a drop of 30% in a short time, which is troubling for investors," Beau commented.

Some traders highlight that the timing of Bitcoin’s October peak closely aligns with previous cycle tops, raising concerns that 2026 could result in a bear market.

Hougan acknowledged that retail investor activity has influenced current market dynamics, noting that "fast-moving" retail investors began to exit the market later in the year, anticipating a downturn driven by the cycle.

Nevertheless, Hougan remains confident that Bitcoin's downside has been mitigated due to "persistent, slow-moving institutional buying." Unlike past cycles where declines exceeded 60%, today's pullback is comparatively mild, suggesting that long-term financial backing is providing essential support.

Caution Among Analysts

Not all experts share Hougan's optimistic outlook. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could plunge to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, emphasizing ongoing risks related to macroeconomic conditions and overall market dynamics.

Hougan also suggested that expectations for US political events to propel Bitcoin higher may be overblown. While Bitcoin surged earlier in 2025 following Donald Trump's inauguration, he believes the current administration is unlikely to drive substantial growth.

As we approach 2026, opinions within the industry are divided. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has indicated that the year could serve as a pause period, with prices possibly declining toward $65,000. Conversely, others maintain a more positive stance. Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, has argued that Bitcoin’s fundamental values remained strong throughout 2025, despite declining prices. Meanwhile, Hougan continues to assert that 2026 will herald an "up year" for Bitcoin.

According to Linh Tran, a market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin's recent price movements highlight the market's responsiveness to shifts in monetary policy rather than economic headlines.