Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Experience Ongoing Challenges as Key Metric Remains Low

As Bitcoin continues to struggle in the fourth quarter of 2025, many investors are considering selling off parts of their holdings. This includes a specific group known as short-term holders (STHs), who have been under significant pressure for an extended period.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's short-term holders are experiencing significant losses as reflected by the STH MVRV metric remaining below 1 for 60 consecutive days.
Prolonged negative readings indicate high levels of investor stress and could lead to capitulation sell-offs.
Bitcoin is trading below its 111-day simple moving average, suggesting it is in a consolidation or corrective phase.
Market dynamics, including macro events and increased demand, will influence Bitcoin's future price movement.

Bitcoin

Short-Term Holder MVRV Stays in the Red for Two Months

In a recent update on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted concerning trends for Bitcoin’s short-term holders. His focus was on the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, which compares Bitcoin's current market price to its historical realized value. This metric helps to determine whether short-term investors are making profits or incurring losses.

When the STH MVRV is below the neutral point of "1," it suggests that short-term holders are losing money on average. A significant decline can also signal potential capitulation events. Conversely, values above 1 indicate that these investors are in profit, making profit-taking more likely.

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Source: @burak_kesmeci on X

Kesmeci's analysis indicates that the STH MVRV has stayed in the red for a remarkable 60 days. He elaborated that this represents an unprecedented test of patience for Bitcoin's short-term investors in 2025. Extended periods of low MVRV often correlate with increased market stress, and given this group’s reactiveness, we could see Bitcoin's price affected by potential sell-offs due to capitulation.

However, if bearish pressures ease, these prolonged negative readings might hint at an upcoming market stabilization.

Bitcoin Remains Below the 111-Day SMA — Implications for Price Movement

To support his observations, Kesmeci provided a vital technical perspective on Bitcoin's recent price behavior. He noted that Bitcoin has been trading below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) during the same timeframe.

This combination of on-chain metrics and technical analysis paints a clear picture: Bitcoin is likely in a consolidation or corrective phase, challenging earlier beliefs that the cryptocurrency might be on the brink of a significant upward trend.

Overall, Bitcoin’s future price movement remains uncertain. Factors such as macroeconomic shifts and renewed demand in the spot market could play crucial roles in determining its trajectory. Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $87,380, showing little movement over the past day.

Bitcoin
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView