Bitcoin Shows a Diverging Path from Global M2 Supply in Early 2026 Amidst Mixed Analyst Views

Recently, Bitcoin has begun to show clear signs of separating from the patterns of the global M2 money supply, especially in early 2026. This has sparked differing opinions among analysts regarding what this shift indicates for cryptocurrency.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has been decoupling from the global M2 money supply since mid-2025, with this trend becoming more evident in 2026.
Analysts are divided, with some believing this decoupling signals a positive future for Bitcoin, while others see it as a sign of potential downturns.
Factors influencing these opinions include inflation hedging with precious metals, risks associated with quantum computing, and global economic tensions.
Despite potential risks, many investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

Diverging Analyst Opinions on Bitcoin and Global M2 Relationship

A January report from Fidelity Digital Assets reassures supporters of Bitcoin, asserting that there remains a positive connection between the M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices. They highlight that historical bull cycles in Bitcoin typically align with periods of M2 growth. Fidelity’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin, due to its inherent scarcity, is better positioned to absorb excess capital compared to other assets.

Fidelity states, “As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program concluding, we expect to see this growth trend continue through 2026, serving as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.”

Global M2 and Bitcoin YoY Change
Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

Proponents of this viewpoint argue that recently, gold and silver have absorbed demand as inflation hedges, while the resurgence of money printing across various nations has also significantly influenced Bitcoin’s momentum. Analyst MartyParty adopts a more assertive perspective; he posits that Bitcoin’s price might rebound soon as it catches up with growth in the money supply, drawing comparisons with a 50-day lag.

“Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity – Lagged 50 days. M2 indicates a bounce here — Jan 12th,” he forecasts.

Global M2 and Bitcoin Price
Source: MartyParty

Nevertheless, Fidelity’s chart reveals a weakening correlation between Bitcoin’s year-on-year growth and the yearly changes in Global M2 over the last year, showing an even wider divergence at the beginning of 2026. Bitcoin has experienced negative YoY growth while Global M2 has consistently grown by over 10%, raising doubts among some analysts.

Mister Crypto observes that episodes of Bitcoin’s price distancing from M2 growth often mark significant peaks in the market, leading to prolonged bear markets that typically span two to four years.

Global M2 and Bitcoin Price
Source: Mister Crypto

Analyst Charles Edwards presents an entirely different perspective regarding this decoupling phenomenon. He suggests that the year 2025 saw increased concerns about the capability of quantum computers potentially bypassing Bitcoin’s encryption. He argues that this risk explains the decoupling from M2.

“This marks the first occasion where Bitcoin has diverged from the money supply and global liquidity flows. The year 2025 was when Bitcoin entered the Quantum Event Horizon, meaning events could unfold quicker than the necessary upgrades to its system. Money is shifting to account for this risk,” Edwards explains.

In summary, the divergence among analysts reflects the increasing intricacies within the Bitcoin market. The bullish analysts draw on traditional historical models supported by Federal Reserve actions and increased money printing, while those with a bearish outlook highlight unprecedented technological risks.

As Bitcoin steps into 2026, it must navigate additional challenges, including impacts from the yen carry trade and potential geopolitical tensions that could escalate into significant global conflicts. While these challenges might suggest troubling times for Bitcoin, they could also present buying opportunities for investors who believe that, no matter how the landscape shifts, Bitcoin remains a reliable long-term store of value, consistent with its performance over the past 15 years.