Bitcoin Shows Similar Patterns to 2021 Bull Run

Bitcoin might be following a market pattern that historically preceded one of its strongest price surges. A prominent trader focused on high-timeframe data points out a fractal that closely resembles Bitcoin's movements before the 2021 bull run. He believes the current cycle mirrors a well-documented structural pattern observed across various market cycles over the last decade.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is mirroring a historical fractal pattern prior to its significant rally in 2021.
The present cycle shows consistency in pattern structure and timing with previous cycles observed over the last decade.
The $100,000 price point acts as a crucial psychological and structural resistance barrier.
Current market trends suggest potential price movements around $98,000–$99,000, with profit-taking pressures in the $95,000–$100,000 range.
Sustained movements above $104,000–$105,000 could necessitate a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s overall trend direction.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2026

Understanding Bitcoin's Fractal: A High-Timeframe Perspective

The fractal identified by the trader is founded on a direct comparison of Bitcoin's present cycle with its setup in 2021, demonstrated in a chart he provided in his analysis. This chart aligns both timeframes, illustrating how the price climbed into a broad distribution range, followed by a sharp correction, and then attempted to rebound while facing descending resistance. In both scenarios, Bitcoin retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before stabilizing, indicating a common technical turning point rather than merely a coincidence in pricing.

Bitcoin price
Source: X

This structural consistency not only applies to price levels but also to timing. According to the trader, the ongoing cycle has consistently tracked the timelines of historical four-year cycles, allowing past all-time highs and lows to be systematically analyzed. With this framework, the data previously indicated a high-probability short position near the peak around $123,000, reinforcing the idea that recurring market patterns continue to shape risk directions in the market.

By making a side-by-side comparison of these cycles, the trader believes that Bitcoin’s current behavior is being analyzed through a recurring structural framework that has persisted for over 12 years, rather than through subjective opinions.

$100,000: A Key Psychological and Structural Barrier

In the identified fractal, psychological resistance plays a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's potential for upward movement. Reflecting on 2021, Bitcoin struggled to decisively regain the $50,000 level, often reversing before hitting it, which established a behavioral pattern regarding traders’ reactions to crucial round-number price points. In the current cycle, the $100,000 level acts as the equivalent psychological barrier. This may lead some traders to act preemptively, causing selling pressure from those who are 'underwater' (holding unprofitable positions) and from larger market players cashing out.

This anticipated resistance is further supported by diagonal trendlines that reflect the caps seen in 2021, essentially creating a limit on upward movement. In this context, short-term price movements reaching between $98,000 and $99,000 remain feasible, aligned with the fractal, as prices can approach the psychological barrier. Additionally, data from the past six to eight months shows that the median short-term buyer’s cost basis has concentrated between $95,000 and $100,000, indicating potential zones for profit-taking and defensive selling to ramp up.

These factors suggest a situation where the price might test this resistance, experience temporary pullbacks, and respect structural boundaries without undermining the broader high-timeframe analysis. However, the trader emphasizes that this framework is probabilistic: only a consistent move above $104,000–$105,000 would invalidate the fractal pattern and require a comprehensive reassessment of the high-timeframe trend.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC holds steady above $95,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com