Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: Possible Factors for Change, Says CryptoQuant CEO

Bitcoin may be entering a new bear market unless new macro liquidity — specifically through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — returns to the landscape, according to statements made by CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin may be entering a bear market unless new macro liquidity surfaces.
Current indicators from CryptoQuant are showing bearish trends.
ETF inflows play a crucial role in influencing Bitcoin prices.
Long-term holders are advised to remain calm despite market fluctuations.
Recent structural improvements in the Bitcoin market suggest a strong long-term outlook.

Bitcoin bear market warning news

Are We Facing a Bitcoin Bear Market?

In a recent post on X, Ju shared a composite on-chain dashboard highlighting Bitcoin's price trends. He commented, “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The dashboard features a heatmap from 2021 to 2025 that illustrates how changes in market conditions correlate with bearish indicators.

This chart stacks ten metrics from CryptoQuant, including the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and a Technical Signal metric. When most indicators are bullish, the background turns light green; when they turn bearish, it shifts to red. Currently, with Bitcoin’s price declining from recent highs, red is the dominating color, leading Ju to issue this warning.

Bitcoin Bull Score Modell

For any significant next move, Ju highlights that on-chain data is now less critical than the state of macro conditions and ETF flows. He noted, “It is simple. If you think macro gets better next year, you buy. Otherwise, you sell. I’m not a macro expert, so find macro bros. New ETF inflows are the key.” This sentiment underscores the importance of renewed demand from spot ETFs as a potential source of institutional investment for Bitcoin.

Historically, increased ETF inflows have coincided with price surges; conversely, recent stagnation or declines in these flows have paralleled a loss in upward momentum. Ju emphasizes the need for flexible market strategies instead of rigid predictions. “At this stage, it is more about being reactive than predictive. Set your scenarios and trade accordingly,” he advised.

Despite the overall bearish sentiment, Ju does not anticipate a repeat of Bitcoin’s drastic drop in 2022, when it plummeted by about 65% from its peak. He attributes this to the behavior of Michael Saylor's Strategy, which he sees as a stabilizing force. “If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he stated. This supply largely remaining off the market, he believes, decreases the chances of a drastic market sell-off.

Ju describes the current decline as significant but not unprecedented historically, stating, “We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and resemble a broad sideways range.” He suggests that sustained price consolidation is more probable than a single sharp downturn.

His advice to long-term investors is clear and reassuring. “Long-term holders should avoid panic selling,” he emphasized. Although certain on-chain indicators are showing bearish signals, he is confident that the structural aspects of Bitcoin’s market have improved: “Bitcoin has more liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is obviously strong, in my opinion.” These channels include a growing presence of ETFs and an enhanced institutional market setup compared to previous cycles.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is priced at $92,494.

Bitcoin price