Bitcoin: Standard Chartered’s Updated Forecast and the New Factors Influencing Prices

Standard Chartered has significantly revised its Bitcoin price forecast, cutting its 2025 projection in half. The bank now anticipates Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, down from its previous estimate of $200,000. Factors contributing to this adjustment include slower corporate buying and delayed ETF inflows, leading analysts to reassess long-term expectations.

Key Takeaways

Standard Chartered has reduced its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast from $200,000 to $100,000.
The long-term projection of $500,000 has been postponed from 2028 to 2030.
Key drivers of this change include a slowdown in corporate treasuries' Bitcoin accumulation and reduced ETF inflows.
Analysts suggest that future Bitcoin price growth will likely depend heavily on ETF-related purchases.
The traditional Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer seen as a significant price influence.

Bitcoin – Standard Chartered’s Revised Projection and Why THIS is ‘No Longer a Price Driver’

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Prediction

Standard Chartered, a leading global bank, has made headlines by drastically revising its Bitcoin price forecast. The new estimate suggests that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2025—this is a substantial reduction from its earlier target of $200,000. Additionally, the anticipated long-term valuation of $500,000 has been delayed from its original timeline of 2028 to 2030. This adjustment hints at a more cautious approach by analysts regarding both short- and long-term Bitcoin forecasts.

As of now, Bitcoin [BTC] is trading around $90,000 and is facing a tight range in its trading activity. Analysts are increasingly recognizing that there is a lack of strong catalysts that could significantly boost Bitcoin's price in the near future.

Institutional Buying Falls Short of Expectations

The primary reason behind this downward revision, according to Standard Chartered's analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, is a fundamental reassessment of the anticipated sources of demand that were believed to drive Bitcoin to new heights. Kendrick identified two main factors contributing to this recalibration.

Firstly, there is the issue of corporate treasury exhaustion. The intense buying wave by corporations, which defined the landscape in 2024—led notably by companies like Strategy—has largely subsided. This previous buying spree provided a strong price support for Bitcoin, but as these corporations slow or pause their purchasing activities, a vital source of market support has diminished.

Secondly, there has been a significant decline in ETF inflows. Market expectations that Spot Bitcoin ETFs would spur robust institutional demand have not materialized as quickly as analysts initially forecasted. The flow of capital into these investment vehicles has slowed considerably, falling short of the aggressive inflow models that were anticipated at their launch.

Together, these factors suggest that two major drivers of structural demand for Bitcoin are not operating at full capacity. As a result, analysts have had to reevaluate their near-term price expectations.

Data Insights

The noted slowdown is also reflected in the available data. For instance, Bitcoin ETF inflows currently lie at approximately 50,000 coins per quarter. This is the lowest performance since these financial products were introduced in the U.S. and marks a sharp decline from the nearly 450,000 BTC purchased every quarter by combined corporate treasuries and ETFs at the end of 2024. Kendrick’s analysis indicates that the potential for future price increases will hinge almost entirely on ETF-related demand.

Additionally, the potential impact of Federal Reserve policies cannot be overlooked. While some investors anticipate a near-term reduction in interest rates, the ongoing guidance regarding monetary policy in the upcoming year will play a more crucial role.

Moving Away from the Halving Cycle

Lastly, Standard Chartered’s revised forecast explicitly distances itself from the traditional “halving cycle” models that have historically influenced Bitcoin price expectations. Analyst Matthew Sigel stated, “With ETF buying becoming more prominent, we believe the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The established logic that prices peak about 18 months after each halving and subsequently decline is not applicable anymore, in our opinion.” Sigel also mentioned that breaking the current all-time high of $126,000, set on October 6, 2025, will be essential to validate this new perspective.

According to Kendrick, characteristics of past boom-and-bust cycles may no longer correspond to the evolving market dynamics. He suggested that severe downturns, often referred to as “crypto winters,” may become a thing of the past.

Final Thoughts

As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, it is essential for investors and enthusiasts to stay informed of changing forecasts and market dynamics. Standard Chartered’s revised projections underline the importance of understanding both current market conditions and institutional behavior as they shape the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.