Bitcoin STH Loss Transfers Decline by 80% From Peak: What's Next?

Bitcoin has recently managed to regain the $90,000 mark after experiencing several days of significant volatility. However, the upward momentum remains limited as the market grapples with ongoing uncertainty and fear. While bullish investors have made some progress, selling pressure continues to dominate sentiment, raising speculation about the potential onset of a new bear market. Many analysts caution that this bounce may not suffice to alter the broader market trend unless stronger demand resurfaces.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's value has rebounded to $90K after a volatile period, yet uncertainty remains.
Short-term holders have reduced the amount of BTC sent to exchanges at a loss, dropping to 11,600 BTC from 67,000 BTC.
A crucial decision for short-term holders lies in whether to sell now for smaller gains or wait for a complete recovery.
Despite a recovery effort, Bitcoin faces significant overhead resistance and continues to trade below important moving averages.
The $85K-$87K region is a crucial support level that, if breached, could lead to further declines.

Overall, Bitcoin's journey ahead is uncertain, with conditions ripe for both recovery and renewed challenges.

Fresh data from Darkfost indicates a slight easing of short-term stress among investors. The volume of Bitcoin sent to exchanges at a loss has seen a sharp decline, currently at approximately 11,600 BTC—down from the drastic 67,000 BTC capitulation spike recorded on November 22nd. This drop suggests that panic-driven selling may be subsiding, offering the market a temporary chance to stabilize.

Despite this improvement, Bitcoin faces notable challenges ahead. Investors remain apprehensive, liquidity conditions are tight, and macroeconomic uncertainty continues to dampen the appeal of risk assets. For the time being, BTC must maintain levels above the $90K zone and demonstrate sustained strength to fend off renewed downward pressure. The upcoming sessions may reveal whether this recovery signals the beginning of a healing phase or merely a pause before another decline.

Critical Choices for Short-Term Holders

According to Darkfost, the amount of BTC being sold at a profit by short-term holders remains relatively low, around 9,500 BTC. Nevertheless, there has been a slight uptick as Bitcoin has managed to rise above the $90K threshold again, indicating that some short-term holders (STHs) are beginning to take profits or lessen their exposure to the market.

This nuanced change reflects the increasing tension among recent buyers, who face a critical decision: to wait for a full recovery to their break-even point or to sell now and potentially minimize further losses.
Bitcoin STH P&L To Exchanges | Source: Darkfost

This situation has resulted in a precarious environment. Even though selling pressure has eased, STHs remain highly sensitive to even slight price changes, which often influence the short-term market direction. Recent days have been relatively calm compared to the sharp capitulation observed earlier this month, and this calmness is viewed positively. It suggests that panic has waned temporarily, allowing the market to seek balance.

A crucial aspect moving forward will be to observe how STHs react as Bitcoin reaches their realized price. If they choose to hold and confidence grows, BTC could gain the stability needed to push higher. Conversely, if aggressive selling occurs, renewed downward pressure could soon resurface. The next actions of this group will likely establish the market's tone in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin's Recovery Efforts Complicated by Overhead Resistance

The daily chart for Bitcoin illustrates the asset's attempt at recovery after hitting a capitulation low near $80K. However, the current price structure remains delicate. Although it has reclaimed the $90K area, the momentum is limited, with BTC trading below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages—indicators that continue to slope downward, pointing to ongoing bearish pressure.

The 200-day moving average is positioned even higher, further reinforcing the broader downtrend that has developed since the peak of $126K in early October.

Recent price candles indicate a cautious rebound, with upward wicks showing sellers pushing back against every attempt to breach the $92K–$94K range. The tight trading ranges reveal indecision in the market. Trading volume has also notably cooled compared to the frantic selling seen earlier in November, indicating that while forced selling has eased, there is still a lack of strong buying conviction.

From a structural viewpoint, BTC remains beneath vital resistance clusters created during its previous consolidation. Regaining these levels will be crucial for reversing the bearish trend. Until that occurs, each price bounce risks becoming a lower high within a broader corrective framework.

On the downside, the $85K–$87K range is the most important support area to watch. A breakdown below this region could pave the way for deeper corrective targets. Currently, Bitcoin is focused on stabilizing, but bulls need to reclaim higher levels promptly to shift market sentiment and avert renewed downward pressure.