Bitcoin Struggles Below $100K Despite Fed's Rate Cut

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, the third cut of the year, aligning with the market's expectations. In typical fashion before the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin saw a rise above $94,000 on Monday. However, the media's hawkish perspective on the rate cut indicates that the Fed is divided regarding the future of US monetary policy and the economy.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin remains stuck below $100,000 due to a fragile market structure, resulting in increasing unrealized losses.
Realized losses have surged to $555 million per day, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022.
Heavy profit-taking from holders of more than one year and the capitulation of top buyers hinder the reclaiming of significant cost basis levels for Bitcoin.
The recent Fed rate cuts may not provide a significant boost to Bitcoin prices in the short term.

This "hawkish" perception surrounding the rate cut may lead to Bitcoin experiencing sell-offs and remaining within its range until a new momentum catalyst arises. CNBC reported that the Fed's 9-3 vote signals ongoing concerns among members about inflation's resilience, suggesting that the pace of future rate cuts may slow down in 2026.

Glassnode’s data indicates that Bitcoin is also facing weakening on-chain conditions, declining futures demand, and ongoing sell pressure, keeping BTC below the crucial $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s Challenge to Exceed $100,000

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s struggle to surpass the $100,000 level highlights growing structural pressures: time poses a challenge for bullish investors. As the price remains within this fragile range, unrealized losses continue to accumulate, raising the risk of forced selling.

Realized price and true market mean for Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode

The relative unrealized loss over a 30-day simple moving average has escalated to 4.4%, breaking above two years of remaining below 2%. Even as BTC bounced from its low on November 22 to around $92,700, the realized loss continues to rise, now at $555 million per day, a figure reminiscent of the crisis following the FTX fallout.

Simultaneously, long-term holders (those holding for over a year) have realized significant profits, exceeding $1 billion daily, with peaks reaching $1.3 billion. This pattern of capitulation from major buyers alongside significant distribution by long-term holders has kept BTC from reclaiming key cost-basis thresholds, impeding its ability to surpass the $95,000–$102,000 resistance zone.

Realized profit by age. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin's Spot Rally Faces a Declining Futures Market

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the crypto market tends to rally ahead of FOMC meetings; however, a noteworthy divergence has emerged where Bitcoin’s price has risen even as open interest (OI) has dropped.

Bitcoin price versus open interest divergence. Source: CryptoQuant

Since October, OI has declined during the corrective phase, continuing to drop even after BTC bottomed on November 21, despite Bitcoin reaching higher price levels. This situation reflects a rally primarily driven by spot demand rather than speculative leverage.

While historical data suggests that spot-led uptrends are generally healthy, sustained bullish momentum requires an increase in leveraged positions. Currently, derivatives volumes dominate the market, with spot volume accounting for merely 10% of derivatives activity, suggesting that maintaining market strength could become challenging if expectations for further rate cuts falter as we approach the next meeting.