Bitcoin Struggles with Price Resistance: Why a Crypto Winter Remains Unlikely

Despite recent attempts at recovery, Bitcoin's [BTC] price has faced challenges. Over the past eight days, Bitcoin tried to regain momentum by testing the $94,000 local resistance level twice, but both attempts were unsuccessful. As it stands, the broader trend for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap remains bearish, even though it has risen from $84,000 in the last three weeks.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has attempted to break through the $94,000 resistance level twice but failed both times.
Stablecoin inflows to exchanges have decreased by 50% since August, indicating a drop in demand.
Short-term holders are currently facing significant losses, making market recovery challenging.
The recent market phase may suggest stabilization rather than an outright bearish trend.
A full-blown crypto winter appears unlikely under the current circumstances.

Bitcoin's price 'fails' twice, but here's why a crypto-winter is still unlikely

Bitcoin- Stablecoin Exchange Inflows

Source: Darkfost on X

In a recent analysis shared on X, analyst Darkfost pointed out that a significant factor hampering Bitcoin's progression is the decline in incoming liquidity. Since August, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have decreased by 50%, which indicates a lack of consistent demand to propel Bitcoin prices higher. Moreover, other on-chain metrics suggest that short-term Bitcoin holders are currently facing substantial losses, further complicating any potential recovery.

Short-Term BTC Holders Are Facing Significant Challenges

Bitcoin STH Profit Loss

Source: CryptoQuant Insights

According to a report from CryptoQuant Insights, short-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing their most significant losses of 2025. This loss indicates that every bounce in Bitcoin's price has provided an opportunity for these holders to sell at a loss. The combination of holders who are "underwater" and willing to sell, alongside falling demand, presents significant hurdles for any bullish efforts.

Bitcoin STH P&L

Source: CryptoQuant

Another critical metric to monitor is the total amount of short-term holder (STH) holdings that are sent to exchanges within 24 hours. Typically, during a price uptrend, losses in STH holdings are minimal. In contrast, downtrends see a greater volume of holdings at a loss. Recently, the lack of an upward trend, coupled with strong profit-taking actions, has been evident. In mid-October, the number of BTC sent at a profit to exchanges diminished, suggesting some confidence in further price increases. However, since November 27, instances of profit-taking among STH holders have bolstered the notion that market sentiment is currently fearful, with price bounces mainly perceived as opportunities to sell.

Final Thoughts

While Bitcoin's recent struggles to regain upward momentum are notable, the presence of stabilization factors and a lack of a definitive bearish market conditions suggest that a prolonged crypto winter is not on the horizon.