Bitcoin Surges to $97K as Long-Term Holders Keep Their Coins Locked

Bitcoin Surges to $97K as Long-Term Holders Keep Their Coins Locked

Bitcoin has surged above the $97,000 mark, marking a recovery that offers short-term relief to a market that has faced weeks of uncertainty. While this rise has rekindled optimism among some investors, many analysts remain cautious, suggesting that this rally could merely be a temporary bounce within a broader bearish outlook for 2026.

However, the price movement alone doesn't tell the entire story. A CryptoQuant analyst pointed out that Bitcoin's resilience is evident after convincingly breaking through the $94,200 resistance level, moving quickly towards the $97,500 range, with on-chain data providing crucial insights into this upward movement.

One primary indicator backing this advance is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a metric that highlights the behavior of long-term holders. VDD tracks how long coins have remained inactive before being spent, weighted by transaction size. This metric helps differentiate whether price changes are due to seasoned holders selling off their older coins or are driven by newer coins changing hands.

As of January 2026, the VDD is around 0.53, which is historically low. This indicates that the coins currently circulating are relatively young while older holdings remain inactive. This trend suggests that long-term holders are not eager to sell during this uptrend, which adds structural support to the recent breakout, even as the market debates if this surge signals renewed strength or just a temporary rebound.

Long-Term Holders Support Bitcoin's Price Surge

The analysis by Carmelo Alemán, a Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant, emphasizes a significant factor behind Bitcoin's recent price increase above crucial resistance levels. Despite the sharp rise in price, long-term holders have largely remained inactive. This means that investors who have maintained their Bitcoin positions through various market cycles are not taking the current price strength as an opportunity to sell. Their reluctance to sell has greatly enhanced the quality of this rally.

Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed | Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, such behavior has proven significant. When Bitcoin rises while VDD remains low, it indicates that older coins are not entering the market. Demand is primarily fueled by younger supply, allowing prices to climb without instigating sell-offs from more experienced market players. These conditions have generally aligned with periods of healthier market expansion rather than fleeting speculative spikes.

The current breakout aligns with this historical trend. Bitcoin's advance through resistance has not coincided with a wave of long-dormant coins being sold. Instead, long-term holders seem comfortable maintaining their positions despite higher prices, reflecting confidence in the overall market structure rather than an urgent need to realize profits.

However, this supportive environment is conditional. As long as VDD remains low, the rally rests on strong foundations. Yet, a sustained rise in this indicator would indicate that long-term holders are starting to sell, potentially leading to increased selling pressure.

Price Tests Essential Resistance After December Recovery

Bitcoin's price is striving to stabilize following a sharp rebound from its December lows, reclaiming the $96,000 to $97,000 zone. This price range coincides with several technical factors, making it a crucial area for guiding short-term direction. The recent upswing came after a significant sell-off from the highs in November, during which the price briefly dipped below key moving averages and fell to the low $80,000s.

BTC testing key Moving Average | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

From a structural perspective, BTC is currently posting higher lows on the daily chart, suggesting a possible short-term trend reversal. Additionally, it has reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which typically acts as a dynamic resistance level during downtrends. Sustaining levels above this average would be favorable, indicating that buyers are regaining traction after weeks of volatility.

However, significant overhead resistance remains. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, situated between $100,000 and $108,000, form a substantial supply zone where previous breakdowns occurred. If Bitcoin fails to push higher, it could lead to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward the $92,000–$94,000 support area.

Trading volume has surged during this rebound, indicating genuine market participation rather than a simple liquidity bounce. Nonetheless, the broader trend remains uncertain. For a bullish outlook, Bitcoin needs to solidify its position above $97,000 and make a clear attempt towards the significant $100,000 psychological threshold. Failing to do so could result in it being viewed as a technical recovery within a larger corrective phase.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has surpassed $97,000, sparking short-term market optimism, but analysts are cautious about the long-term outlook.
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric indicates that long-term holders are not selling, which supports the price rally.
A significant price level of $96,000 to $97,000 serves as a critical resistance area following December’s lows.
Bitcoin must maintain its position above $97,000 and aim for the $100,000 mark for continued bullish momentum.