Bitcoin Surges to Week-Long Highs – Can BTC Break $95K This Thanksgiving?

Bitcoin has seen a notable increase of 13% from its recent lows of $80,000, recently crossing the $90,000 threshold. This unexpected surge closely follows a historical trend of BTC price increases in the days leading up to the Thanksgiving weekend, sparking optimism among traders for further gains.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is experiencing a pre-Thanksgiving rally, aiming to outperform its historical average return of -0.8% during this holiday.
To avoid a potential drop below $80,000, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $100,000-$105,000 range.

Bitcoin Surges to Week-Long Highs

A Rare Thanksgiving BTC Price Rally?

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the BTC/USD pair was trading at $91,400 on Thursday, reflecting a more than 5% increase from the previous day. "We just had a bullish Wednesday too," stated Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, referencing an analysis that shows historical bullish trends for Wednesdays leading into Thanksgiving, often followed by weaker performance on Thursdays.

BTC/USD daily chart
Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

Traders are hopeful that Bitcoin will maintain its upward momentum into the holiday, diverging from its past performances on Thanksgiving Day, where it has only posted gains in two out of the last ten years, with significant declines seen in 2018 and 2020. Analysts, like Crypto Daan Trades, noted an average return of -0.8% historically on this day.

BTC/USD performance on Thanksgiving Day
Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Other market analysts are keen to see how high Bitcoin could climb during this Thanksgiving period, especially since it is trading 4% below its all-time high close of over $95,000, reached on November 28, 2024. “We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving,” said analyst Terence Michael on Wednesday, urging his audience to remain vigilant despite the current price trends.

Bitcoin is currently testing the resistance area between $91,000 and $93,000 after experiencing its “first meaningful bounce in a long time,” according to analyst Jelle. He emphasized that the markets would be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day.

BTC/USD chart
Source: Jelle

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's short-term potential for upward movement is limited due to uncertainties regarding interest rate policies, inflation expectations, and the current state of BTC derivatives.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch

Currently, Bitcoin’s market structure appears "fragile," having lost its 50-week moving average along with key support levels, as highlighted by the on-chain data provider Glassnode. This situation is reminiscent of early 2022, when the market weakened due to declining demand after reaching previous all-time highs.

Glassnode pointed out that realized losses are at elevated levels, with “short-term holder loss ratios collapsing to 0.07x, indicating diminishing liquidity and demand.”

Bitcoin short-term cost basis bands
Source: Glassnode

On the upside, reclaiming the range between $100,000 and $105,000 is crucial, as it represents Bitcoin's short-term holder realized price and its 50-week moving average. Historically, these trend lines have acted as vital support levels for Bitcoin’s price, and it's essential for Bitcoin to regain them to prevent deeper losses that could potentially slide it below $80,000.