Bitcoin Takes Charge: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for the First Time Since October

Bitcoin has recently surged beyond the $95,000 mark as selling pressure across the entire market starts to decline. This development brings a refreshed sense of short-term stability following several weeks of erratic price movements. Despite the turbulent end to last year, the price action has shown gradual improvement, with buyers regaining control and pushing Bitcoin back into a previously resistant range. Nevertheless, there is still skepticism, as many analysts caution against a broader corrective phase. Notably, recent data from derivatives and positioning indicates that market dynamics might be changing.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has surpassed the $95,000 level, indicating reduced selling pressure.
The Positioning Index SMA-30d has risen to 3.5, the strongest reading since October 6, 2025.
This shift signals a transition from a defensive market posture to a more bullish stance among futures traders.
The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index reflects a cooling sentiment but remains above neutral levels.
For Bitcoin to maintain momentum, it must hold above the $93K–$95K range; otherwise, risks of further corrections may increase.

Historically, the Positioning Index’s rise to 3.5 is significant, as it marks the first sustained breakout above the 3.0 level since October 6, 2025. That breakout coincided with a rally that propelled BTC toward its all-time high of $125,000, making the current movement noteworthy.

Bitcoin Positioning Index | Source: CryptoQuant

The Positioning Index captures the overall dynamics of the futures market, measuring elements such as open interest and the balance between long and short positions. It’s often a tool for detecting shifts in trader sentiment.

Even though this renewed strength in positioning does not promise immediate price increases, it suggests that futures traders are starting to adopt more directional positions, marking a departure from months of cautious trading. As Bitcoin remains above the $95K mark, the coming days will be pivotal in determining if this uptick develops into a broader trend or is merely a relief rally.

Bitcoin Takes Charge: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for the First Time Since October

Futures Positioning Indicates a Bullish Transition

Axel Adler Jr. emphasizes that the recent breakout of the Positioning Index SMA-30d above the 3.0 level signifies a vital shift in Bitcoin’s futures market. After nearly three months of trading within a range of 0 ± 2, this new movement implies that traders are evolving from a neutral or defensive approach to a more actively engaged positioning.

According to Adler, the focus now shifts to sustaining this momentum rather than rushing. A crucial factor is for the SMA to remain above the 2.0 level for at least a week to confirm that this trend is not just a fleeting reaction.

This perspective is supported by the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index. Although sentiment reached a high of 93.15% when Bitcoin was around $95,061, it has since settled around 70%. Importantly, this decline in sentiment has not triggered a sharp price drop. The index holds significantly above the neutral threshold of 50% and above its 30-day average of approximately 62.9%, signifying that bullish sentiments still dominate the futures market.

Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index | Source: CryptoQuant

Adler interprets the roughly 23-point decline in sentiment as a natural cooling of short-term exuberance rather than an indication of a trend reversal. Historically, such resets have been known to reinforce the strength of trends. However, caution is advised if sentiment dips below 50% coupled with a price drop below $92,000. Conversely, maintaining sentiment above 60% during minor consolidations would bolster the chances for further upside potential.

Analysis of Bitcoin Price Movements

Bitcoin's daily price chart illustrates a clear effort to regain territory after an extended consolidation phase. Following a sharp downturn in November that dragged prices into the low $80K range, Bitcoin has progressively built a higher-low structure, indicating stabilization instead of continual capitulation. The latest rise above $95,000 represents the highest daily close seen since mid-November, positioning Bitcoin above its short-term moving average, which had restrained upward movement during December.

BTC Testing Critical Resistance | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Nonetheless, the overall trend remains somewhat mixed. The 50-day moving average is still trending downward and sits above the current price, acting as near-term resistance. In contrast, the 200-day moving average is trending upward, indicating that the broader market structure remains steady despite recent fluctuations. This trend signals a market in transition from corrective pressures toward a potential recovery phase rather than a clear trend reversal.

The advance toward $95K occurred without a notable spike in trading volume, indicating less selling pressure rather than an influx of new demand. This situation is indicative of a relief-driven movement fueled by short positions being closed and necessary position adjustments.

For bullish traders, holding above the range of $93K–$95K is crucial to sustain price momentum and establish a foundation for further gains. A failure to consolidate above this level could lead to a renewed pattern of sideways trading or a decline towards the $90K support area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com