Bitcoin Trails Gold and Stocks, But 2026 Could Be Its Year for Recovery

Bitcoin

Summary:
Recent data shows Bitcoin lagging behind gold and the S&P 500 after a significant pullback. While gold and the S&P have shown gains, Bitcoin has dropped in value. However, indicators suggest there could be opportunities for Bitcoin to catch up in 2026.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has decreased by approximately 20% since early November, while gold rose by 9% and the S&P 500 increased by 1%.
Large holders (whales) are maintaining positions instead of adding to their assets, which influences market dynamics.
On-chain data shows mixed signs, with interest in Bitcoin present but trading volume decreasing.
Analysts predict a potential turnaround for Bitcoin, reminiscent of the bullish market conditions seen in 2016-2017.

Market Dynamics: Bitcoin Versus Gold and Stocks

Following a price drop in November, Bitcoin has found itself in a less favorable position compared to gold and the S&P 500. Specifically, Bitcoin's current price level is around $88,000, reflecting a notable decline of about 20%, in contrast to gold's impressive gain of 9% and a modest 1% rise for the S&P 500. This disparity suggests that Bitcoin's recent performance has been quieter compared to the slight recoveries observed in other markets.

Whale Behavior Insights

According to insights from market analysis firm Santiment, there's a noticeable difference in action between small and large Bitcoin holders. During the latter part of 2025, small wallet owners were active in purchasing Bitcoin, while larger holders mostly maintained their positions and sold assets after a peak in October. These larger holders are key market influencers, and their cautious approach may be contributing to the downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Historically, a trend shift occurs when large holders begin buying while smaller holders pull back; this current scenario does not yet exhibit that pattern.

📊 Performance summary since the start of November: 🥇 Gold: +9%
🏦 S&P 500: +1%
🪙 Bitcoin: -20% 🤞 As we look towards 2026, there might be an opportunity for crypto to regain lost ground.
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025

Market Data

Analyzing On-Chain Data

Recent reports indicate a mixed sentiment in Bitcoin's on-chain data. Long-term holders have reduced their holdings from 14.8 million in mid-July to 14.3 million by December but have since paused further selling. Additionally, while the number of active Bitcoin addresses has risen by over 5% within the last 24 hours, the volume of transactions has seen a sharp decline of nearly 30%.

This contrast suggests that while more individuals are monitoring the market, fewer are actively making transactions. The overall statistics hint at rising interest but fail to signify a comprehensive revival in trading activity.

BTC Trading Chart BTC/USD is currently priced at $88,756. Chart: TradingView

Garrett Jin, an influential market analyst and former exchange operator, noted that traders are reallocating capital, asserting that money flows between different markets when opportunities arise. With the notion of selling high and buying low still relevant, he's optimistic about future movements.

Another expert, CyrilXBT, characterized the market as being in a late-cycle phase before a potential rotation, suggesting that if liquidity changes, Bitcoin might take the lead and inspire growth in other cryptocurrencies following gold's cooldown.

Currently, Bitcoin bears a striking resemblance to the market conditions of 2016-2017, just prior to a significant upward move. The parallels and bullish indicators are compelling, indicating that Bitcoin may be primed for a substantial surge.
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) December 30, 2025

Future Projections

Technical analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. Javon Marks has highlighted emerging parabolic trends in Bitcoin's charts, similar to what was seen during the 2016-2017 run-up, suggesting a possible target of $125,000. Conversely, CoinCodex anticipates a more conservative increase, projecting Bitcoin could reach around $91,500 by January 30, 2026, marking a 3.68% rise from current levels.

However, the overall sentiment remains bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 23, indicating "Extreme Fear." CoinCodex observed that Bitcoin has seen 15 out of 30 days of gains and experienced a modest 2.11% volatility over the past month, according to data updated on December 31, 2025.

Short-term traders should keep a close watch on whether large wallet holders resume buying and if trading activity increases in tandem with active addresses. A resurgence in whale activity alongside stabilization in long-term holdings could signal a more secure position for Bitcoin than either metric individually.

Overall, while signs of stabilization are present, a definitive reversal remains unconfirmed. However, if liquidity improves and sentiment shifts positively, 2026 may present significant opportunities for Bitcoin to regain its status.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView