Bitcoin Triumphs as Trump Boosts GDP and Controls Oil Prices: Insights from Arthur Hayes

In a recent essay, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, claims that the U.S. government's actions to control Venezuelan oil are driven more by electoral strategies than by geopolitical factors. He suggests that this approach, which aims for accelerated economic growth while managing energy costs, is fundamentally positive for Bitcoin and high-risk cryptocurrencies.

Key Takeaways

Political Strategy Influence: U.S. politicians prioritize re-election, focusing on economic performance as perceived by voters.
Gas Prices Matter: Gasoline prices are crucial for voters and can heavily influence political control during elections.
Impact on Bitcoin: If oil prices stay low, it could enhance Bitcoin’s value, as the currency's value isn't directly tied to energy costs.
Market Indicators: Key financial indicators could signal shifts in market dynamics affecting Bitcoin.
Investment Positioning: Hayes’s investment fund, Maelstrom, is geared towards a risk-on strategy for 2026, planning to diversify into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

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Understanding the Current Economic Landscape

In his January 6 essay titled "Suavemente," Arthur Hayes emphasizes that U.S. politicians often act with re-election in mind, and the average voter is primarily concerned about economic welfare. He poses a critical question regarding the impact of U.S. actions in Venezuela on Bitcoin's value, contemplating whether it will lead to an increase or decrease.

Hayes argues that U.S. political outcomes hinge on subtle shifts in the economy, particularly the areas of food and energy inflation. He believes that the economy is the primary concern for average voters. “It is easy to pump the economy, which refers to nominal GDP, based on how much credit President Trump can generate,” he notes.

However, he warns of potential fallout from rising inflation, particularly impacting gas prices. “For Americans, the price of gasoline is a critical measure,” Hayes states. He explains that limited public transportation options mean that gas prices serve as an ongoing evaluation of economic stewardship. In this environment, he perceives Venezuelan oil as valuable, helping to keep gas prices down without triggering voter dissatisfaction.

The Economics of Bitcoin: Conditions Favorable for Growth

Hayes believes that Bitcoin's long-term success is influenced by oil prices rather than its mining mechanics. He notes that because Bitcoin relies on energy consumption for mining, its value remains unaffected by energy costs because all miners' costs will rise or fall together. The real concern is whether rising oil prices can lead politicians to halt money printing.

He identifies market stress indicators such as the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index, which measures bond-market volatility. According to Hayes, if oil prices rise significantly, resulting in Treasury yields approaching 5%, market volatility spikes and can pressure policymakers to adjust their strategies.

Referencing a previous market scenario, Hayes points out that when Trump threatened high tariffs, it led to market turmoil and increased volatility, prompting a pause on those tariffs resulting in a market recovery.

In the absence of such stresses, Hayes anticipates a robust increase in credit supply alongside falling or stable oil prices, leading to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. He refers to his “USD Liquidity Conditions Index," arguing that as dollar liquidity increases, Bitcoin's value and that of certain cryptocurrencies will soar.

Strategic Investment Insights

The essay also functions as an investment strategy update. Hayes reveals that his fund, Maelstrom, has started 2026 with a considerable risk appetite and minimal exposure to dollar-based assets. He indicates plans to rotate investments: selling Bitcoin to support privacy-focused coins and divesting from Ethereum to strengthen positions in decentralized finance (DeFi). He specifically mentions Zcash (ZEC) as a key privacy asset his fund has heavily invested in.

As of the latest reports, Bitcoin is trading at $93,841, further indicating potential shifts in the market landscape.

Bitcoin price chart Bitcoin needs to overcome the 0.618 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com