Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Historic Signal Emerges

A significant long-term metric comparing Bitcoin and gold has recently triggered a rare signal not seen in market history. Experts believe that such extreme compression usually precedes substantial price movements. This situation is especially crucial as it involves two globally recognized safe-haven assets. With Bitcoin having outperformed gold for over a decade, this unusual indicator suggests that the upcoming phase in the Bitcoin vs. Gold landscape could reshape long-term market expectations.

Key Takeaways

A historic indicator comparing Bitcoin and gold has signaled a potential market shift.
Current market dynamics may lead to significant downward movement for Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin vs. Gold ratio has dropped to a rare low, historically linked to swift recovery periods.
Understanding this metric is crucial for investors considering market trends ahead.

Bitcoin

What Happens After a Historic Squeeze?

The monthly Bollinger Bands comparing Bitcoin to gold are currently expanding from a historically tight range. Tony “The Bull” Severino, a chartered market technician and Bitcoin trader, has shared insights on X, revealing that Bitcoin’s price is presently hovering at the lower Bollinger Band. A decisive close below this point would initiate a sell signal as the bands transition from a squeeze setup.

According to Tony The Bull CMT, this scenario opens the door for a notable downward trend, marking the first significant downtrend on the Bitcoin to Gold chart. While this might not directly correlate to the USD, it’s clear that gold could soon eclipse Bitcoin. If Bitcoin finds itself at $X billion, moving down into that lower greenish area, it signals trouble for Bitcoin in this comparative ratio.

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BTC vs Gold rare signal unfolds | Source: Chart from Tony Severino on X

The weekly Bollinger Bands for this pair recorded their tightest range ever, and since they began to expand, Bitcoin has dropped over 25% in just a few weeks. The current monthly signal is reported to be at least four times stronger.

This year has been particularly harsh for Bitcoin, with a severe downtrend in play. Crypto analyst Zynx noted that Bitcoin is nearly 50% below its all-time high when compared to gold, indicating that the leading cryptocurrency has been in a bear market for a full year in 2025.

Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has declined by 45% against gold. To surpass its previous all-time high compared to gold, Bitcoin would need to rally by an impressive 99%, which translates to a price point of around $170,000 before it can genuinely claim a bull market.

Bitcoin and Gold Ratio Hits a Rare Statistical Low

Bitcoin has fallen to one of its most unusual valuation points relative to gold in over a decade. Stacy Muur, an analyst and founder of GREEND0TS, pointed out that the BTC/gold ratio has dropped below a statistical lower boundary established in a 15-year power-law model.

Notably, Bitcoin has only breached this level once before, in late 2017, and subsequently bounced back within weeks. Historically, when Bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared to gold, it tends to correct swiftly. While this isn’t necessarily a timing signal, it represents a rare statistical anomaly that investors should closely monitor.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $87,157 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com