Bitcoin Weekly RSI Hits Lowest Levels Since $15K BTC Price

Bitcoin weekly RSI falls to the most oversold levels since $15K BTC price

Summary: Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached levels not seen since prices were near $15,000, suggesting a potential price reversal in the near term. Additionally, on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin may be undervalued at its current price levels.

Key Takeaways:

The "most oversold" RSI for Bitcoin, which has historically indicated potential price rallies, suggests that a price rebound is possible soon.
The current network value-to-transaction ratio indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued at prices around $87,000.

BTC Price Decline Reflects in RSI Levels

Bitcoin experienced a notable decrease of 36%, dropping to $80,500 on November 21 from its all-time high of $126,000. This downturn has had a significant effect on the high-time frame RSI.

Related: Bitcoin rebounds on Japan rate hike as Arthur Hayes predicts dollar at 200 yen.

Currently, the weekly RSI has fallen from a local high of 64 in September to 35, levels last observed in January 2023 when Bitcoin's price hovered between $15,500 and $17,000.

“Historically, when the weekly RSI reaches this level, it's a sign that attention is warranted,” noted analyst Jelle in a post on X.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView.

The RSI is a tool used to measure the strength of a trend and has three important reference points: the 30 oversold mark, the 50 midpoint, and the 70 overbought boundary. When prices cross these thresholds, traders can gain insights into potential uptrends or downtrends. In bull markets, Bitcoin often spends significant time in the overbought range.

“Bitcoin appears to be the most oversold it has been throughout this cycle,” shared Mister Crypto in a recent post, also pointing to the Stochastic RSI illustrated in the two-week chart below.

BTC/USD two-week chart. Source: Mister Crypto.

However, not all traders believe that Bitcoin is due for an immediate recovery. Lark Davis, a YouTuber, cited previous oversold conditions in 2018 and 2022, leading to further declines of 49% and 58%, respectively, and suggested Bitcoin could potentially drop another 40%.

As Cointelegraph has reported, there is a significant concentration of liquidity clusters above the current spot price, which supports the argument for a possible short-term reversal in BTC/USD.

Bitcoin Valuation Appears Undervalued at $87,000

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may currently be undervalued when assessed by its network value to transaction (NVT) ratio, a metric that compares the market capitalization to the actual usage of its network.

The following chart indicates that Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross has fallen to a historically low level of approximately -0.6, “a zone that reflects a structural undervaluation of the network,” explained CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV in his latest Quicktake analysis.

The NVT ratio has seen a slight increase to -0.32 in recent days, signaling that prices may be starting to align with transaction-based fundamentals after a sharp discount in valuation.

However, the “indicator remains in negative territory, indicating that Bitcoin is still conservatively priced relative to its network utility,” added the analyst.

Bitcoin: NVT golden cross. Source: CryptoQuant.

“While prices are recovering, the valuation is still discounted compared to actual network usage,” observed another analyst, CryptosRus, in response to MorenoDV's analysis. Notably, the last two occurrences when the NVT Golden Cross reached such low levels were in April 2025 and at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, both of which preceded significant BTC price rallies of 60% and 350%, respectively.