Bitcoin Whales Increase Activity on Exchanges in Early 2026, Signaling Potential Risks

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a recovery in early 2026, but recent data suggests that this may not last long due to increasing signs of potential selling pressure. Traders with long positions should consider the possibility of adverse market conditions to reduce their risk.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin whales are becoming more active on exchanges, which may indicate impending selling pressure.
The Bitcoin All Exchanges Whale Ratio has reached its highest level in ten months, suggesting heavy whale activity.
Decreased trading volume for Bitcoin and altcoins signifies fragile market liquidity that could lead to increased volatility.
There is a possibility of a short-term price correction for Bitcoin towards the $90,000 and $88,500 levels as some analysts foresee trouble ahead.

Increased Whale Activity Signals Warning

Recent on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin whales are ramping up their activities on various exchanges. This trend is particularly concerning given the current low trading volume.

Significant Spike in Whale Inflow Ratio

A critical indicator to watch is the All Exchanges Whale Ratio (EMA14), which has surged to its highest level in ten months. This ratio compares the top 10 inflows of Bitcoin to the total inflows on exchanges. Elevated ratios suggest that whales are significantly using exchanges for trading.

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

While Bitcoin exchange reserves are on a downward trajectory due to increasing demand from Decentralized Autonomous Traders (DATs) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), the spike in the whale ratio may act as a precursor to a potential rise in BTC balances on exchanges.

"This trend is emerging as Bitcoin's price tries to recover following a correction. It implies that whales might be looking to exploit buy-side liquidity for profit-taking, utilizing the current market conditions for exit liquidity," noted CryptoOnchain, a CryptoQuant analyst.

In addition to this, the already fragile market liquidity raises the risk of abrupt price movements and greater volatility.

Dwindling Spot Trading Volume

According to a recent update from Glassnode, the spot trading volume for Bitcoin and altcoins has dropped to its lowest point since November 2023.

Bitcoin and Altcoin Spot Volume. Source: Glassnode

“This declining demand starkly contrasts with recent upward price movements. It emphasizes how thin liquidity has been crucial in supporting these price changes,” Glassnode stated.

In a situation with limited liquidity, minor buying pressure can drive prices up, while even moderate selling pressure can trigger significant price declines.

If whales on exchanges start selling, as the data suggests, the recent rebound in Bitcoin (over 6%) and the 10% increase in total altcoin market capitalization could quickly be reversed due to the already precarious liquidity situation.

Signs of a Market Slowdown

Analyst Willy Woo has pointed out a notable decline in Bitcoin transaction fees, calling the market a “ghost town.” He indicated that both the mempool and transaction fee metrics reflect a record-low on-chain activity. This drop in transactions often indicates weaker capital inflows and outflows, suggesting a less active market.

Bitcoin Mempool and Transaction Fees. Source: Willy Woo

Woo anticipates a possible short-term price increase in January as liquidity reaches a local bottom. Nevertheless, the broader long-term outlook remains pessimistic due to a lack of real market movement.

In the near term, several analysts predict a correction in Bitcoin's price towards the $90,000 and $88,500 support zones, coinciding with a newly established CME gap.