Bitwise CIO Predicts Start of Crypto Winter in 2025—But When Will It End?

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise Asset Management, has stated that we are currently in a crypto winter.

Key Takeaways

Crypto Winter Initiation: Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management asserts that a significant crypto winter began in January 2025.
Market Performance: Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen substantial declines, while those with institutional backing fared better.
Impact of Institutional Support: Institutional investments have masked the extent of the downturn for certain assets.
Recovery Speculation: Historical crypto winters last about 13 months, prompting speculation about when the current crypto winter may end.
Diverse Opinions: Analysts differ on the timeline for the bear market, indicating differing outlooks for recovery.

According to his analysis, this crypto winter commenced in January 2025, although significant institutional investments may have obscured the true extent of the downturn. The pressing question now is: how long will this winter last?

Market Conditions Reflect a Continuing Crypto Winter

In a recent commentary on the market, Hougan dismissed the notion that the recent decline in prices is a mere temporary correction. Instead, he describes the current situation as a “full-blown crypto winter,” citing sharp declines in major cryptocurrencies.

He pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading approximately 39% below its all-time high in October 2025, while Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a drop of about 53%. Many alternative cryptocurrencies have seen even more significant losses.

“This isn’t just a ‘bull market correction’ or a simple ‘dip.’ It resembles a severe crypto winter, akin to the dramatic depiction in ‘The Revenant,’ triggered by factors such as excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by early investors,” Hougan remarked.

He noted that institutional interest has played a crucial role in concealing the downturn. Relying on data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, Hougan illustrated a clear distinction in asset performance.

Assets with significant institutional backing, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP (XRP), have exhibited relatively modest declines since January 2025. In contrast, tokens that gained access to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, like Solana (SOL), Chainlink (LINK), and Litecoin (LTC), have suffered larger losses.

Furthermore, cryptocurrencies without institutional investment have plummeted between 60% and 75%. Hougan stated, “The difference among these groups lies primarily in whether institutions could invest in them.”

Major Crypto Token Performances in 2025. Source: X/Matt Hougan

During this timeframe, ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) have amassed over 744,000 Bitcoin, estimated to be worth around $75 billion. Hougan believes that without this level of institutional support, the losses for Bitcoin would have been significantly worse.

“Retail cryptocurrency has been enduring a harsh winter since January 2025. Institutions merely masked this reality for certain assets for a time,” he explained.

Hougan also tackled a common question among market participants: why are crypto prices falling despite positive news like increased institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, and greater acceptance on Wall Street?

His response was straightforward: during a crypto winter, good news generally has little effect on prices.

“Those who have observed previous crypto winters—specifically in 2018 or 2022—will understand that good news is insignificant during such downturns. Crypto winters do not conclude with excitement; they finish with exhaustion,” he elaborated.

However, he suggested that while these positive developments might be overlooked during bearish markets, they do not vanish. Instead, they can build up as “potential energy,” which may pave the way for a recovery once sentiment shifts.

Hougan cited various factors that could enhance market sentiment, such as robust economic growth leading to a risk-on rally, a favorable surprise linked to the Clarity Act, signs of government adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time.

Reviewing historical trends, Hougan mentioned that crypto winters typically endure around 13 months. If the current winter indeed began in January 2025, it’s possible that its conclusion could be approaching.

“Yes. And I believe it’s nearly over,” he stated. https://t.co/qGWbbnYwEJ — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan)

He highlighted that the prevailing atmosphere of despair often characterizes the final phase of a crypto winter while noting that nothing fundamentally has changed in crypto during this downturn.

“I think we will bounce back sooner rather than later. It’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely approaching,” Hougan stated.

Assessing the Start of the Crypto Bear Market: A Timeline Dispute

While Hougan identifies January 2025 as the inception of the bear market, not all analysts agree with this viewpoint. Julio Moreno, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, acknowledged the variations in asset performance due to institutional involvement but disputes the timeline.

“I contest the idea that the winter began in January 2025. Bitcoin's prices maintained an overall upward trend throughout 2025, hitting a new all-time high in October. The lack of a dramatic peak or a positive year-end does not imply we were in a bear market during 2025. The Bitcoin bear market commenced in November 2025, supported by on-chain and market data,” he remarked.

The selected start date is important. Historically, crypto winters last around 13 months. If the downturn initiated in January 2025, recovery could be imminent. If Moreno is correct and the market peaked in November 2025, the bear phase may extend further.

“The timing impacts the expected end. Currently, I predict Q3 2026,” Moreno noted.

Whether a recovery will emerge early in 2026, as Hougan foresees, or be delayed until Q3 under Moreno’s timeline, remains uncertain. However, it is evident that the market is deeply immersed in a downturn.

Historical patterns indicate that these periods do not conclude with a single trigger but rather develop over time. If past cycles offer any insight, the groundwork for the next recovery may already be taking shape below the surface.