Bitwise Predicts ETFs Will Consume Over 100% of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana’s New Supply in 2026

Bitwise Asset Management has unveiled its outlook for 2026, highlighting an anticipated significant supply squeeze. The firm forecasts that U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will collectively purchase more than 100% of all newly minted Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) next year. This landmark prediction hints at a new era of institutional influence over digital assets.

Key Takeaways

Bitwise forecasts that U.S.-listed ETFs will buy over 100% of new BTC, ETH, and SOL in 2026.
Institutional interest in ETFs is reshaping demand dynamics beyond traditional cycles.
The growing inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs indicates a trend towards greater institutional adoption.
A potential supply squeeze could lead to upward price pressure in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitwise Predicts ETFs to Consume Over 100% of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana’s New Supply in 2026

Bitwise notes that the current demand landscape has evolved well beyond the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycle. ETF inflows, institutional approvals, and enhanced market access now overshadow halving cycles and speculative trading. Recent ETF flow data illustrates how this scenario could unfold.

Bitwise's Predictions for 2026

Bitwise estimates that ETF demand will surpass initial forecasts as more institutions participate in 2026. Since the inception of ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin-focused funds have purchased 710,777 BTC, while only 363,047 BTC has been newly mined during the same timeframe—a clear indication of the demand-supply imbalance.

With major financial firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Vanguard improving access to retail and institutional ETFs, Bitwise anticipates that this consumption gap will continue to expand.

Real-World ETF Flows Indicate Growing Confidence

Despite the inherent volatility, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs currently manage assets totaling $114.28 billion, which represents 6.54% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, along with cumulative net inflows of $57.27 billion. Even on a down day like December 16—when outflows dipped by $277.09 million—trading volumes remained robust, exceeding $4.26 billion, underscoring ongoing institutional interest.

In the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, inflows this year eclipsed the total supply generated by the network. U.S. Ethereum ETFs manage $18.17 billion in assets, equating to 5.11% of Ethereum’s market cap, with cumulative inflows reaching $12.64 billion and daily trading volumes at $1.17 billion. Despite a daily outflow of $224.26 million on December 16, net accumulation remains strong—a trend Bitwise expects to intensify as ETF access broadens across additional U.S. wealth platforms.

Although smaller, Solana ETFs have quickly gained momentum, recording positive daily flows of $3.64 million. Additionally, on December 16, they traded $39.53 million, a remarkable achievement for a product less than one year old. XRP ETFs, launched even more recently, have also seen consistent inflows, signaling a steady uptake among retail investors and advisors seeking to diversify their cryptocurrency portfolios with XRP, which trades near $1.88.

Cumulatively, these flow patterns lend credence to Bitwise’s thesis: ETF demand is robust, persistent, and expanding across various digital assets.

Potential Tipping Point for 2026

Bitwise identifies several key factors driving its projection. The firm also anticipates that crypto-linked equities will outperform technology stocks next year and predicts a doubling of assets under management (AUM) in on-chain vaults. Additionally, they expect Polymarket to reach new highs in open interest and Ivy League endowments to further enhance their allocations toward cryptocurrency.

Market Implications of Bitwise’s Prediction

If ETFs indeed absorb more than 100% of the new BTC, ETH, and SOL supply, the structural constraints on cryptocurrency supply will tighten. This scenario could mirror traditional commodity markets, where financial instruments consume more supply than miners can generate.

Such dynamics would likely lead to upward pressure on prices, especially as global access to ETFs continues to grow.

Bitwise's projection for 2026 indicates a substantial shift in the cryptocurrency market, driven by increased ETF demand and institutional participation. With major financial institutions expanding access to digital assets, the potential for a historic supply squeeze looms, suggesting that prices may rise as supply becomes constrained.