Bloomberg Cautions That Bitcoin May Drop to $50,000 in 2026, While Highlighting Factors That Could Prevent It

Summary: A recent analysis from Bloomberg suggests that Bitcoin could revisit the significant level of $50,000 in 2026 due to various macroeconomic factors. While Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,525, the market has recently experienced fluctuations. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone emphasizes caution, tying Bitcoin's price movements to historical patterns of volatility in the stock market. Despite this caution, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's short-term future.

Key Takeaways

Bloomberg warns that Bitcoin may face downward pressure and could drop to $50,000 by 2026 under certain macro conditions.
Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to perform best when stock market volatility is low.
Currently traded at approximately $91,525, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after previous highs near $94,741.
Analysts are mixed on short-term prospects, with some seeing resistance around $94,000 but optimistic about potential rebounds.

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Bitcoin’s Historical Reaction to Stock Market Volatility

In his recent analysis, Mike McGlone from Bloomberg examined a long-term chart that highlights Bitcoin's yearly performance from 2014 through early 2026, alongside the S&P 500 Index and its 120-day volatility. The findings reveal that Bitcoin typically experiences its most significant price rallies when stock market volatility is low and stable. Conversely, when stock volatility spikes, Bitcoin usually retraces toward long-term support levels.

From 2014 to 2016, Bitcoin traded within a range of $200 to $600, establishing an early foundation while stock volatility fluctuated. In 2017, as equity market volatility decreased, Bitcoin surged to nearly $20,000 by December of that year. However, the trend reversed in 2018 when increasing market volatility led to Bitcoin's decline to about $3,336 by January 2019. This pattern repeated in subsequent cycles, with Bitcoin hitting a peak of nearly $69,000 in November 2021 during a period of calm, followed by a drop to around $16,273 in December 2022 as volatility returned.

Bitcoin 12M Chart and SPX 120D Volatility | Bloomberg Intelligence

Bitcoin’s Potential to Revisit the $50,000 Pivot

Bitcoin has seen a recovery in 2023 and 2024, regaining the $50,000 mark, which now serves as a crucial structural pivot. By 2025, Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, reaching a high of $126,000 in October, but by the final quarter of 2025, it dropped back below the $100,000 mark. Notably, the S&P 500 volatility index fell to the 11 to 12 range, among the lowest in decades. While stock market volatility declined, gold saw its best relative performance in 2025 since 1979, often a precursor to increased market stress.

McGlone warns that this market setup currently appears risky, as gold prices typically do not maintain such highs while equity volatility remains low. He suggests that if volatility returns in the coming year, Bitcoin could regress to the pivotal $50,000 level. However, Bitcoin might avoid this drop if stock market volatility stays particularly low. It’s worth noting that McGlone had previously indicated that Bitcoin could revisit the $50,000 mark last year.

Short-Term Outlook: Analysts Remain Optimistic

In contrast to McGlone's cautious stance, some cryptocurrency analysts express bullish sentiments regarding Bitcoin's short-term future. Lark Davis highlighted today that Bitcoin recently encountered resistance near $94,000, leading to the first red daily candle of the year. He noted a 3% decline during the New York market opening, with Bitcoin dropping from $94,300 to $91,200 rapidly.

Bitcoin 1D Chart Lark Davis

Following this dip, Bitcoin quickly rebounded by 2% after MSCI retained its Strategy in the index, pushing the price back toward $92,000. Davis emphasized that the market is currently watching to see if Bitcoin can break above the $94,000 resistance level or risk facing another rejection during U.S. trading hours. Analyst Emperor identified the resistance zone between $94,000 and $95,000 and anticipates a potential pullback toward $90,700–$91,000, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin holding this level to maintain short-term upward momentum.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, as The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.