BTC Adjusts After Fed Rate Cut as AI Correlation Grows, Reports Nansen

Crypto markets are beginning to stabilize following the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, prompting traders to reconsider how a more data-driven policy approach might affect liquidity conditions as we move into early 2026.

Key Takeaways

Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, crypto markets are stabilizing as traders reassess liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin briefly reached $92,000 but experienced a pullback due to volatility in AI stocks.
The primary resistance level for Bitcoin is noted at $91,000, with the need for sustained trading above this for a confirmed uptrend.
Options markets for 2026 appear bullish, while there are concerns that economic data may not meet optimistic expectations.

BITCOIN PRICE

A recent report from the on-chain analytics firm Nansen reveals that the combination of updated forward guidance, new liquidity measures, and changing cross-asset dynamics has created a more intricate landscape for digital assets.

Earlier today, Bitcoin experienced a brief surge above $92,000 before pulling back, reflecting the overall market volatility seen in risk markets after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, noted that markets were expecting a rate cut alongside a hawkish tone but instead received a cut with “uncertain, data-dependent” guidance. The Fed’s introduction of Treasury bill purchases and the elimination of the cap on the standing repo facility heightened expectations of a potential liquidity increase in the first quarter of 2026.

AI Stocks Influence Bitcoin's Latest Drop

Bitcoin's decline following the FOMC meeting coincided with significant fluctuations in leading U.S. AI stocks after Oracle announced its earnings. Barthere pointed out that while the AI sector continues to exhibit strong earnings and capital expenditure growth, valuations have risen to levels that may be increasingly challenging to justify as 2026 approaches.

She also mentioned that Bitcoin has shown a growing correlation with AI-focused equities, a trend she anticipates will continue. “I expect that relationship to endure until we see a substantial sell-off that thoroughly ‘cleans’ valuations in the sector,” she remarked. As long as AI stocks respond dramatically to unexpected earnings results or revisions in guidance, Bitcoin is likely to mirror those price movements.

Key Resistance Stands at $91K as Market Positioning Remains Tight

From both a technical and market structure viewpoint, Barthere identified $91,000 as the primary resistance level for Bitcoin. To confirm a renewed upward trend, sustained trading above that level for several weeks would be necessary.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

However, derivatives markets indicate stretched positioning, with open interest in both futures and options reaching historic highs. High leverage raises the risk of sudden price movements if market sentiment shifts or liquidity decreases.

As we approach the end of the year, traders are holding significant downside protection. Current options market forecasts imply a 48% chance that Bitcoin will regain the $91,000 level, while futures funding rates remain only slightly positive, suggesting that leveraged long positions are not overwhelmingly dominant.

Prospects for 2026: Optimistic Options, Potential Risks Ahead

Looking ahead, Nansen highlights that options markets appear structurally bullish for 2026, signaling expectations for enhanced liquidity, macroeconomic stability, and continued inflows from institutional investors.

Nonetheless, Barthere warned that such positioning may be at risk if economic data or earnings trends fall short of these optimistic expectations. As markets recalibrate, traders will closely monitor evolving liquidity dynamics and whether Bitcoin can decisively breach resistance levels to regain upward momentum.

In September, Nansen introduced Nansen AI, a mobile tool designed to revolutionize how investors and traders engage with blockchain data.