BTC Mining Difficulty Expected to Increase in December, Amidst Low Hashprice

As the Bitcoin mining sector approaches a new difficulty adjustment, the challenges for miners continue to escalate. The anticipated increase in difficulty comes at a time when hashprice remains near historical lows, prompting miners to make critical decisions regarding the viability of their operations.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's mining difficulty is expected to rise from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, estimated to occur around block 927,360 on December 1.
The hashprice is currently around $38.3 petahashes per second (PH/s), still below the $40 break-even point for miners.
The mining industry is grappling with various obstacles, including regulatory issues, surging energy costs, and geopolitical tensions affecting equipment supply.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is investigating Bitmain, a major manufacturer of mining hardware, which may lead to supply chain disruptions.

BTC mining difficulty forecast to rise in Dec, as hashprice sits near record lows

Current Mining Conditions

Bitcoin’s next mining difficulty adjustment is set to take place at block 927,360, projected for approximately 12:09:34 AM UTC. This adjustment will cause a slight increase in the mining difficulty from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, according to the data from CoinWarz. The latest adjustment occurred recently, with the difficulty decreasing from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, which led to an average block time of around 9.97 minutes, just under the usual target of 10 minutes.

Mining, Bitcoin Mining, Bitmain, United States Bitcoin’s mining difficulty from 2014-2025. Source: CoinWarz

Despite the decrease in mining difficulty, the hashprice remains at about $38.3 PH/s per day, according to Hashrate Index, an improvement from the record low that fell below $35 PH/s on November 21. To put things into perspective, a hashprice of $40 PH/s represents the break-even point for miners, at which point they must decide whether to continue operating their machines or shut them down.

Mining, Bitcoin Mining, Bitmain, United States Bitcoin mining hashprice, a critical metric for miner profitability, sits below the $40 mark and is hovering near record lows. Source: Hashrate Index

The mining sector is currently dealing with significant hurdles. In addition to regulatory bans and restrictions, miners face rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and China, which could disrupt essential equipment supply lines.

Related: Thirteen years after the first halving, Bitcoin mining looks very different in 2025

Investigations and Concerns in the Mining Sector

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has launched an investigation into Bitmain, a leading manufacturer of crypto mining hardware located in China. This investigation focuses on concerns regarding whether the mining machines could be accessed remotely for espionage activities.

In 2024, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, known for her critical stance towards cryptocurrencies, raised alarms about the potential for application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) to be used for spying on key U.S. military bases and sensitive national defense sites. Bitmain holds an impressive market share of 80% in the ASIC market, as reported by the University of Cambridge.

If U.S. officials impose restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions on Bitmain, it could lead to supply chain disruptions for the mining industry, which heavily depends on the company’s products.

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