Can Cryptocurrency Surpass Gold and Stocks by 2026? Key Numbers to Watch

This year's events in the cryptocurrency market have been noteworthy, but they haven't shown much progress. While markets for stocks and precious metals have seen gains, digital assets like Bitcoin have faced challenges in keeping up. This underperformance does not indicate a failure of the market, but instead suggests that a shift could be on the horizon for the next year.

Key Takeaways

Gold and stocks have risen this year, with gold increasing by about 9% and the S&P 500 also benefiting.
Bitcoin, however, has faced a decline of roughly 20%.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin remain confident, showing little selling activity despite market dips.
The upcoming year may present new opportunities as capital could start moving back into crypto from other assets.

A Persistent Gap in Performance

Since November, gold has risen around 9%, and the S&P 500 has gained traction too. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped nearly 20%. This disparity is notable, particularly as other risk assets seem to be performing well.

crypto performance

Source: Santiment

However, this situation does not stem from a sudden loss of faith in Bitcoin; rather, it seems that capital is being directed elsewhere. The allure of safety has benefited metals, equities have gained from selective optimism, whereas crypto has continued on a more stagnant path. Despite the lack of attention, the crypto market could still be a promising area for growth in 2026.

Resilience Among Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

While short-term holders have seen fluctuations, long-term holders (LTH) have consistently held their positions since July. There has been minimal selling from this group, indicating their ongoing confidence in the market.

bitcoin

Source: X

Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, suggests that capital is beginning to flow back into cryptocurrency as interest in metals slows down. He noted in an X post that traders often sell when the market is strong and reinvest when it's weaker. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s current stability could be a sign of readiness for a potential market shift, indicating that long-term holders may be waiting for favorable conditions rather than selling hastily.

The Importance of Timing in the Market

On a cautionary note, Bitcoin's worst years—such as in 2014, 2018, and 2022—occurred during midterms and were marked by significant declines and extended weak periods. This historical context raises concerns that 2026 could present similar challenges.

crypto trends

Source: X

This backdrop makes the current market dynamics particularly intriguing. With long-term holders retaining their assets, a lack of capital movement, and stagnant prices, the future of Bitcoin will largely depend on whether the market conditions evolve favorably.

Concluding Insights

In summary, while cryptocurrency has not mirrored the performance of gold and stocks in 2023, the situation may change moving into 2026. Understanding the behavior of long-term holders and the historical performance during midterm years will be crucial for investors looking to navigate this evolving landscape.