Can Dogecoin Reach $10 Despite Current Market Challenges?

Summary:
A recent analysis indicates that Dogecoin (DOGE) is at a critical juncture in its market cycle. While current price movements are compressed and volatility is decreasing, a crypto analyst believes that a breakout is on the horizon, potentially pushing Dogecoin towards $10.

Key Takeaways:

Dogecoin is currently in a third-wave deadlock, limiting clear upward movement.
Historical patterns suggest a possible breakout toward targets above $1, with high potential reaching $10 and beyond.
Analyst opinions vary, with one predicting Dogecoin could hit $1 by Q1 2026 based on support levels.
Despite recent price declines, there is optimism regarding Dogecoin's long-term potential.

Dogecoin

Dogecoin: Stuck in a Third Wave Deadlock

Crypto expert EtherNasyonal has analyzed Dogecoin's current market condition, indicating that the cryptocurrency is caught in a "third-wave deadlock." This situation signifies that Dogecoin hasn't yet experienced the decisive upward movement typical of a strong wave. Instead, the price continues to fluctuate within a narrow range, indicating a lack of significant breakout as it stays at the lower end of an ascending channel.

The analyst presented an Elliott Wave chart that outlines Dogecoin's long-term trend and potential price targets exceeding $10, based on a multi-year model. The chart identifies three significant waves that shape the overall structure of the meme coin. The first wave began in 2014 with an early breakout in 2017, followed by the second wave that led to a substantial bull run in 2021. Currently, Dogecoin is in the third wave, remaining in a consolidation phase until this wave completes.

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Source: Chart from EtherNasyonal on X

According to EtherNasyonal, if historical trends repeat, Dogecoin might be on the verge of a significant third-wave breakout. The chart points to various upward targets if this occurs, starting with around $0.5 and potentially reaching between $1.2 and over $16. The breakout's implications will be crucial in determining Dogecoin's next major price direction.

Predictions for Dogecoin By 2026

Another analyst, Trader Tardigrade, provides a more conservative price forecast for Dogecoin based on a different timeframe. His observations reveal that Dogecoin has consistently bounced off a crucial ascending support line, leading to notable price increases each time.

In November 2024, for instance, Dogecoin experienced an impressive rally of 86.77%. This was followed by a 210.52% jump in March 2025 and a remarkable 442.48% increase in November. Currently, the meme coin is revisiting this critical launch pad, testing trendlines that previously prompted robust upward shifts.

If the historical trend continues, Trader Tardigrade predicts that Dogecoin could reach $1 by the first quarter of 2026. His analysis suggests a possible increase of 611.80% from current levels around $0.15.

Despite Dogecoin's recent struggles, which include a loss of over 20% in the past month as reported by CoinMarketCap, Trader Tardigrade maintains a positive outlook for the coin's future. A rise to $1 would mark a significant bullish turnaround, helping restore investor confidence and reversing the ongoing downtrend.

Dogecoin
DOGE trading at $0.15 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com