Citigroup Lowers Bitcoin Price Target to $112,000 — Are Regulatory Delays Threatening the Bull Run?

Citigroup just cut its Bitcoin price target to $112,000 while BlackRock dropped $600 million on BTC the same week, leaving the future uncertain.

Citigroup has recently adjusted its 12-month Bitcoin price target, reducing it from $143,000 to $112,000.

Strategist Alex Saunders highlights a significant issue: the regulatory changes that investors expected after the elections are falling behind schedule. The opportunity for a new surge in demand driven by ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) is closing faster than anticipated.

Currently, Bitcoin remains stuck below $90,000. While the six-figure price target is still achievable, the road to it has become much more challenging.

Key Takeaways:

Citigroup has cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000 and has also lowered its Ethereum target from $4,304 to $3,175.
Analysts are pointing to a limited timeframe for U.S. crypto legislation in 2025 as a key reason for the lowered projections for institutional adoption.
The updated forecast indicates that the regulatory changes needed to stimulate new ETF inflows may not happen until late 2026.

Citigroup Adjusts Targets Due to Legislative Delays

This revision indicates a significant cooling of the excitement that followed the recent election, which had energized Wall Street late last year.

Notably, Citigroup has also reduced its Ethereum target, now set at $3,175, down from $4,304. This second-largest cryptocurrency is similarly affected by the delays in regulatory progress.

Saunders expresses a straightforward perspective: the opportunity for U.S. crypto legislation this year is diminishing. Without clear guidelines regarding market structure and stablecoins, the institutional investment expected to enter the market in the first quarter of the year remains on hold.

For perspective, Citi's previous optimistic scenario had projected targets as high as $189,000, based on a swift change in policies that have yet to occur.

Market Context: Do Trends Support the Revision?

Citi is taking a cautious stance. Interestingly, BlackRock has just invested $600 million in Bitcoin.

This situation highlights a divergence in outlooks. While Citigroup is concerned about regulatory timelines, major asset managers are prioritizing long-term supply constraints and view current prices as a good buying opportunity.

Recent data from Santiment shows that large Bitcoin wallets are beginning to accumulate, absorbing selling pressure from short-term holders. Such patterns often precede price increases. However, without the legislative clarity that Citigroup is awaiting, these increases may be pushed further into 2026.

Bull Case: If Bitcoin reclaims $92,000 with increased trading volume, this could invalidate the bearish outlook, paving the way to $112,000. Achieving this requires incentivizing ETF inflows and a positive signal from the Federal Reserve.

Bear Case: If Bitcoin drops below $84,000, the price could slide to the $70,000 range. Prolonged congressional deadlock could confirm the scenario of narrative stagnation, resulting in lower liquidity and further price declines. Citigroup’s own pessimistic target stands at $78,500.

The key factor to monitor is ETF flow data. Continued stagnant inflows would suggest that reaching $112,000 might be overly optimistic. Conversely, major inflow weeks could reignite the original target of $143,000.

For now, the market is waiting to see what Washington will decide regarding the future of cryptocurrency.

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