Coinbase Stock Struggles Despite Optimistic Analyst Predictions

Amid a year of underperformance compared to the overall market, Coinbase's stock faces challenges despite positive forecasts from analysts.

Key Takeaways

Coinbase's stock price has dropped approximately 45% from its peak in 2025, trading at $240.
Analysts at major banks have raised forecasts for Coinbase, with an average estimate of $362 based on its significant market share and new initiatives.
The company is experiencing challenges from increasing competition and recent changes in market dynamics.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for the stock, with the potential to drop as low as $100 if Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do not recover.

Coinbase stock faces headwinds despite bullish analysts’ forecasts - 1

Analysts See Potential in Coinbase Shares

Coinbase, recognized as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is currently trading at $240, a decline of about 45% from its highest price in 2025. In contrast, key U.S. indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 are currently close to their all-time highs.

Coinbase's stock performance reflects trends seen in other cryptocurrency-related companies, including Robinhood, Strategy, Metaplanet, and PayPal. This drop in value persists even though some prominent Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook for the company. Analysts from Bank of America have upgraded their rating from hold to buy, raising their target price to $340. Similarly, Goldman Sachs has increased its price target to $303, and Oppenheimer continues to rate it as outperform.

According to MarketBeat, the average target among 32 analysts is $362, indicating a potential increase of 51% from the current share price. Analysts attribute this optimism to Coinbase's strong market presence in the U.S. and its recent new initiatives, including the launch of a predictions platform in collaboration with Kalshi and plans to offer tokenized stock trading, which could attract more users.

Challenges Ahead for Coinbase

Despite the optimistic projections, Coinbase is grappling with several challenges that could impact its recovery. The first issue is the intensifying competition both in the United States and abroad, with companies like SoFi, Vanguard, and Charles Schwab aiming to introduce crypto trading options on their platforms.

Additionally, a recent rally in the cryptocurrency market has stalled after Coinbase withdrew its support for the CLARITY Act due to concerns over its provisions regarding stablecoin yields. Coinbase argues that this legislation could eliminate yields on stablecoins, an area where it has seen significant growth.

Historically, Coinbase and similar exchanges tend to underperform when the cryptocurrency market is struggling, and recent industry data supports this, showing low transaction volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges in recent months. Furthermore, analysts predict that Coinbase’s profitability will continue to be pressured over the next few years as the company invests heavily in its ecosystem. The consensus earnings estimate for 2025 has dropped to $7.82 per share, down from $9.48 in 2024, with expectations of falling to $6.67 this year.

Technical Analysis of Coinbase Stock Price

Coinbase stock chart | Source: TradingView

In terms of technical analysis, the COIN stock price has seen a decrease over the past few months, dropping from a high of $443 to the current price of $240. Recently, it formed a "death cross" pattern, which occurs when the 50-day Exponential Moving Average falls below the 200-day MA, often considered a strong bearish signal.

Currently, the stock appears to be forming a bearish pennant pattern, characterized by a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. It has also dipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $257 and remains below the Supertrend indicator. Consequently, the outlook for COIN stock appears bearish, with the next significant target being the psychological level of $100. However, this bearish trend may change if Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experience a rebound.