Crypto Market Still Not Showing Enough Fear to Confirm a Bottom, Says Santiment

As per insights from crypto analyst Maksim Balashevich, the crypto market has not displayed sufficient fear on social media channels to validate a market bottom. He suggests that Bitcoin's price may drop to around $75,000.

Key Takeaways

Market Sentiment: The current optimism in crypto discussions suggests we are not at a bottom yet.
Potential Bitcoin Drop: Balashevich warns Bitcoin could slide to $75,000, which would be a 14.77% drop from current levels.
Interest Rates Impact: Japan’s central bank raised interest rates, which historically has led to significant corrections in Bitcoin.
Contrasting Views: While Balashevich is cautious, other analysts predict a positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026.

Crypto market ‘isn’t scared enough’ to call a bottom yet: Santiment

According to findings from Santiment, a crypto sentiment analysis platform, the current optimism among traders is a sign that we have not yet reached a market bottom. Balashevich noted that a decline to approximately $75,000 would represent a 14.77% fall from Bitcoin's current level, emphasizing that excessive optimism is not a healthy indicator for a market recovery.

Current Market Sentiment

In a video shared on YouTube, Maksim Balashevich, founder of Santiment, expressed skepticism about the current market conditions. He indicated that the prevailing optimism suggests the market has not yet hit a bottom. “It looks very tempting to come even closer to it,” he remarked, suggesting a potential decline to around $75,000 could be on the horizon.

Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin is up 1.81% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Balashevich pointed out that the common sentiment online indicates an expectation of an imminent market uptick, which is usually not a sign of a true market bottom. According to Santiment's report the same day, “The crowd isn't scared enough for a bottom.”

The Problem with Optimism

Balashevich further analyzed traders' sentiments, noting, “In one particular crowd-dominated or retail-dominated channel, they’re mostly discussing the Bank of Japan cutting rates, and bears getting caught, and now we’ll continue up from here." He added that such remarks are not indicative of a healthy market analysis. If the situation were different, he mentioned that he would feel “very confident” in declaring a market bottom.

On Friday, Japan's central bank raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Historically, similar moves have been followed by Bitcoin experiencing approximately 20% corrections. However, Balashevich views a potential drop to $75,000 as a “very good setup” for traders looking to buy.

Mixed Signals from Analysts

Recently, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, suggested that Bitcoin might need a "year off" in 2026, forecasting a price dip to around $65,000. In contrast, other analysts, like Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise, predict that 2026 will be an "up year" for Bitcoin.

Conflicting Crypto Market Indicators

While Balashevich holds a cautious stance, some crypto market indicators present a different narrative. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall market sentiment, has been stuck in the “Extreme Fear” category since December 14, posting an “Extreme Fear” score of 20 on Sunday.

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Moreover, additional indicators reveal a risk-averse attitude among crypto traders. The Altcoin Season Index recently marked a "Bitcoin Season" score of 17 out of 100, indicating trends favoring Bitcoin over the top 100 altcoins.

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