CryptoQuant CEO Anticipates Boring Bitcoin Movement, Not a Significant Crash

Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, believes that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a significant crash like previous bear markets, predicting instead a period of sideways movement.

Key Takeaways

Current Market Trends: Bitcoin's Realized Cap has shown signs of slowing, indicating fewer capital inflows.
Historical Context: Previous bull markets have seen growth in Realized Cap, suggesting a correlation with market health.
Current Projections: Ju forecasts a flat market rather than a substantial drop, emphasizing the diverse liquidity channels now available.
Retail Demand Decline: Retail investor transactions under $10,000 have decreased recently, indicating a lack of retail interest.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Recent Capital Slowdown

In a recent update on X, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, discussed the recent slowdown in capital flows into Bitcoin. He specifically highlighted the "Realized Cap," an on-chain indicator that assesses the cryptocurrency's total value based on the last transaction price of each token in circulation.

Bitcoin Realized Cap

This Realized Cap serves as a measure of the total capital that all Bitcoin investors have injected into the network. Changes in this metric reflect the movement of capital in and out of Bitcoin. As shown in the accompanying chart, the Realized Cap saw significant growth from late 2023 to late 2025, indicating consistent capital inflow.

However, this upward trend has recently encountered a halt, suggesting a potential transition toward bearish conditions. Historical patterns show that bull markets are usually paired with increasing Realized Cap, while weakening inflows or net outflows precede bearish phases.

Young Ju pointed out that the current cycle differs from previous ones. “Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,” he remarked. He believes that institutional long-term holdings have disrupted the traditional sell cycle. He mentioned new demand sources, such as treasury companies and investment vehicles like spot ETFs.

“I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” Ju stated. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.” Now the question remains: which direction will Bitcoin ultimately take?

In addition to the Realized Cap's decline, the CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn observed reduced demand from retail investors.

Bitcoin Retail Volume

The accompanying chart shows the 30-day percentage change in transaction volumes for retail investors—those making transactions valued below $10,000. This metric has turned negative lately, indicating a monthly drop in retail transaction volume, despite Bitcoin's recent surge in price. “The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” noted Maartunn.

Current Bitcoin Pricing

As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,900, showing an increase of 2% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The price has seen some retracement following its recovery phase.