Current Percentage of Bitcoin Supply Under Loss

On-chain analytics company Glassnode has disclosed the volume of Bitcoin currently sitting at a loss. This follows the recent decline in BTC prices, which remain below the crucial $90,000 threshold after a downturn that began last month.

Key Takeaways

Current Bitcoin supply at a loss is 6.7 million BTC, which is 23.7% of the circulating supply.
10.2% of loss-bearing Bitcoin is held by long-term holders; 13.5% by short-term holders.
Bitcoin’s price has dropped to its lowest in 2024, eliminating year-to-date gains.
Spot demand for Bitcoin is inconsistent, primarily driven by selective engagement across exchanges.
Without significant accumulation in the spot market, Bitcoin's price is influenced more by derivatives than organic demand.

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Bitcoin Supply at a Loss

According to Glassnode's report, 6.7 million BTC are currently in a state of loss, marking the highest amount recorded in this market cycle. This figure represents 23.7% of the circulating supply that is currently underwater. Among this lost supply, 10.2% is owned by long-term holders, while 13.5% is in the hands of short-term holders.

The report suggests that, similar to previous cycles entering deeper bearish phases, the loss-bearing Bitcoin supply accumulated by newer investors is gradually transitioning to long-term holders.

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Source: Chart from Glassnode

Additionally, the 6-7 million BTC that have been in loss since mid-November resembles the early transitional stages of past cycles, where rising investor frustration often preceded a move into more bearish conditions and increased selling pressure at lower Bitcoin prices.

Significantly, Bitcoin's price has dropped to levels unseen since 2024, wiping out its year-to-date gains. Glassnode noted that this decline has left behind a dense cluster of supply accumulated by larger buyers in the price range of $93,000 to $120,000. The resulting supply distribution indicates a market structure that's top-heavy, with recovery attempts being hindered by significant selling pressure, especially at the start of a bearish phase.

Glassnode warns that as long as Bitcoin's price stays below this range and does not regain critical levels, particularly the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, the risk of further declines remains.

Volatility in Bitcoin Spot Demand

Glassnode has indicated that the Bitcoin spot market shows inconsistent demand across major exchanges. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is experiencing sporadic bursts of buying activity but has not led to sustained accumulation, especially during recent downward price movements.

The analytics platform noted that the CVD on Coinbase appears relatively stable, suggesting ongoing participation from U.S.-based investors. Conversely, exchanges like Binance experience more erratic and directionless Bitcoin flows. This inconsistency indicates a selective engagement rather than a coordinated demand across the spot market.

Furthermore, the report commented on the recent declines in Bitcoin's price, which have not resulted in a significant growth in positive CVD. Glassnode highlighted that this implies that dip-buying activities are still more tactical and short-term in nature. Without consistent accumulation across platforms, Bitcoin's price movements seem increasingly reliant on derivatives market activity and liquidity conditions instead of genuine spot demand.

As of now, Bitcoin's price is approximately $86,800, experiencing a slight increase over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.

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BTC trading at $88,112 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com