Declining Duration of Altcoin Rallies: Insights from Wintermute

Summary:
Wintermute's latest report highlights a significant reduction in the duration of altcoin rallies, averaging only 19-20 days in 2025, compared to around 60 days in 2024. This shift, influenced by decreased market liquidity and a focus on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, has reshaped traders' strategies and expectations.

Key Takeaways

Altcoin rallies averaged 19-20 days in 2025, down from about 60 days the previous year.
A notable drop of approximately 55% in open interest for altcoin futures was observed since October 2025.
Institutional investments are increasingly favoring Bitcoin and Ethereum, narrowing market focus.
Future altcoin seasons may depend on renewed retail interest and clearer support from institutions.

altcoin

Shortening Altcoin Rallies

According to Wintermute’s "2025 Digital Asset OTC Markets" report, the duration of altcoin rallies last year was notably shorter than anticipated, averaging only 19 to 20 days. This figure represents a significant decrease from the approximately 60-day rallies witnessed in 2024. The market experienced tighter flows, causing many smaller tokens to see gains dissipate more rapidly than before. Consequently, liquidity shifted back to well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Altcoin Performance

Decline in Altcoin Open Interest

Reports indicate that a critical factor contributing to this trend was a significant deleveraging event on October 10, 2025. This event prompted retail traders to reduce their exposure to risk and move away from smaller tokens. As a result, the open interest in many altcoin futures contracts decreased, with reports highlighting a remarkable 55% decline in open interest since October. Trading desks noted that reduced liquidity made it challenging for altcoin rallies to extend beyond a few weeks, transforming what were once multi-month trends into brief surges.

Major Cryptocurrencies Regain Dominance

Institutional investment flows and product structures have significantly influenced market dynamics. Reports indicate that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other institutional channels have diverted funds towards Bitcoin and Ethereum. Consequently, the market's focus has narrowed considerably. Previously, various narratives enabled numerous tokens to participate in rallies, but now, more investment has become concentrated in leading cryptocurrencies.

Traders indicate a preference for assets where large orders can be executed without causing significant price fluctuations. Analysis from Wintermute suggests a shift in how market momentum is generated—rallies are now driven by more tactical approaches rather than broad, enduring narratives. This has meant that phenomena like memecoin boosts and themes from exchanges have quickly fizzled out.

Some traders have characterized these market movements as 'hair-trigger events,' marked by rapid price increases quickly followed by swift pullbacks. The liquidity bands have tightened, leading to stop-loss orders being triggered sooner than in previous market cycles.

Total Market Cap
Total crypto market cap currently at $3.22 trillion. Chart: TradingView

The Future of Altcoin Seasons

Market participants agree that the prospects for a sustained altcoin season may require several factors to align. According to reports, a resurgence in retail interest, clearer institutional backing for smaller tokens, and a more stable macroeconomic environment could contribute positively. Without these elements, short-lived rallies are likely to persist.

Execution desks have reported that once major buyers return to a token, they can see significant price increases, but maintaining that momentum has proven difficult without broader market participation. Future rebound scenarios for the crypto market in 2026 will hinge on various factors, including institutional interest, changes in macro rates, and a retail shift towards more risk-friendly strategies.

If these conditions are met, rallies could potentially extend beyond the average 19–20 days experienced in 2025. If not, traders anticipate that the current trend of sharp, quick moves into primary cryptocurrencies will remain unchanged.

Featured image from Unsplash; chart from TradingView