Did 2025 Signal a Bear Market for Bitcoin? Analyst Predicts a $150,000 Surge in 2026

As Bitcoin (BTC) faced notable fluctuations throughout the year—reaching unprecedented all-time highs (ATHs) before experiencing sharp corrections of up to 30%—the cryptocurrency community is becoming increasingly divided over its future trajectory. While some analysts express concerns about a possible bear market emerging in 2026, market expert Shanaka Anslem provides a contrasting viewpoint on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). He questions whether 2025 has already marked the onset of an actual bear market.

Key Takeaways

Bear Market Theory: Some experts believe 2025 may already be a bear market for Bitcoin.
Cycle Change Evidence: Bitcoin's price dynamics, including record highs before the Halving event, suggest a cycle inversion, not just a typical upward trend.
Future Predictions: Anslem forecasts Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 in 2026, but others caution that the market may still be in the early phases of a bear market.

Bitcoin

Signs of a Shift in Market Trends

In his analysis, Anslem presents key observations. Notably, for the first time, Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high before the Halving event in April this year, which he interprets not as a positive signal, but as evidence of a changing cycle. He argues that 2024 should not be seen as the start of a new bull run; instead, it can be viewed as a period of “political repricing,” where the market anticipated a pro-crypto administration under President Donald Trump.

According to Anslem, characteristics indicative of a bear market have manifested in 2025. Bitcoin's dominance has surged to multi-year highs while altcoins struggle, seeing continuous declines in value. Furthermore, a significant $3.5 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows occurred in just one month. This year has seen a considerable 29% drop from October’s highs, accompanied by extreme fear readings on various sentiment indices.

Anslem stresses that while the four-year Halving cycle still plays a role, its influence has shifted. He notes that with $120 billion in ETFs connected to the Federal Reserve's liquidity, the Halving continues to govern BTC's supply, but demand is increasingly influenced by broader economic narratives rather than just crypto-specific factors.

Is a Major Bitcoin Rally on the Horizon?

What does Anslem’s theory of “cycle inversion” mean for 2026? If the bear market has already occurred, obscured by nominal highs, the next stage might be a true blow-off top. His predictions indicate that Bitcoin's price could jump to between $150,000 and $200,000, especially as global liquidity grows and steers investment towards hard assets. Anslem suggests that many market participants are currently positioned for a downturn that has already happened.

However, not everyone agrees. Analyst Mr. Wall Street believes that the lowest point for Bitcoin has not yet been reached and will not happen in the near future. He points out that a critical support level has been broken, as shown by the weekly exponential moving average (EMA50) closing below this threshold. He contends that the market has entered the initial stages of a sizeable bear market, predicting a bottom around the $54,000 to $60,000 range, potentially by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Despite this bearish perspective, he expresses a cautious optimism for Bitcoin in the short term, anticipating a potential bounce to retest the EMA50 Weekly, currently near $100,000, while asserting that mid-term targets are considerably lower.

Bitcoin The daily chart displays BTC's efforts to consolidate above the significant $90,000 level. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

As of the writing of this article, BTC was trading at $90,352, reflecting a 28% difference from its all-time high levels.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com